Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
|
![]() ![]() |
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′. It remains possible for a human to trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche 3′-8’+ deep. New snow forecast for this afternoon into the evening adds load to a snowpack that has concerning deep weak layers. Avoid travel on or under cornices, and in steep terrain consider the need to manage loose surface snow. Conservative decision making and cautious route-finding are essential if headed into the backcountry.
SUMMIT LAKE TO SEWARD REGION: Expect the avalanche danger to remain elevated due to strong winds in the past few days, recent precipitation and poor snowpack structure.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Today calls for calm winds, cloudy skies and a chance for 4″-8″ of snow starting this afternoon into the evening.
Our persistent deep slab issue will remain a concern for a while. With colder temperatures, the snowpack is slow to adjust to the wind loading event from 2/23 and the storm snow from 2/18-20. During these events, avalanches were triggered naturally in many areas but not others. As the weather is a limiting contributor to avalanches for most of the daylight hours, what would it take to trigger slopes adjacent to those that haven’t avalanched naturally? Could it be one person on the slope? Yes, it’s possible. Or it could be the 15th person. Like the photos in the recent avalanche section, these deep slabs could be triggered remotely, meaning from a distance above, below, or to the side. Remember, the potential size and consequences of these avalanches could be unsurvivable and warning signs my not exist prior to human trigger.
To avoid these issues, we can play in the powder in the flats or on slopes 30 degrees or less with nothing steeper above us.
If you are headed out into avalanche terrain today, things to remember:
If you haven’t had a chance to watch this footage of natural avalanches from the Summit Lake area (from 2.23.2020), it’s worth it!:
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Although the winds are expected to be calm today, wind slabs have formed over the past two days and could be human triggered. Pay attention to wind hardened surface conditions. Look for drifting patterns and pillowed snow. Watch for cracking and listen for hollow sounding snow. Initiating a wind slab in the top couple feet of the snowpack could ‘step down’ and trigger a much larger slide that breaks in the deep weak layers discussed above.
Cornices: These have grown substantially over the past week and could be triggered today. Avoid travel on or underneath. Triggering a cornice fall could also initiate a deep slab on the slope below.
Loose snow avalanches: On slopes protected from the wind, soft snow may easily sluff in steep terrain.
Yesterday: Skies were clear with temperatures in the single digits to high teens. Winds were northwest from 5-15 mph becoming calm overnight.
Today: Cloudy skies with a high near 24°F and a low around 16°F. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon before shifting to the east tonight. Snow flurries during the day with accumulation tonight of 5″ to 10″ possible.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 78 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 8 | ENE | 11 | 31 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 12 | *NA | *NA | *NA |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer (wind sensor) is rimed over and not reporting.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.