Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today above 1,000′. Naturally occurring wind slab avalanches are possible and human triggered wind slabs are likely on steep slopes with previous or active wind loading. If triggered, these wind slabs have the potential to overload buried weak layers and initiate a larger slab avalanche. In areas out of the wind, the possibility remains for a person to trigger a slab avalanche on these buried weak layers.
The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory that begins at 6pm this evening and extends through tomorrow morning. The advisory calls for an increase in wind, low visibility and new snow – 1-3″ at Turnagain pass and Girdwood, and up to 8″ in the Portage valley. Avalanche danger is expected to remain at CONSIDERABLE overnight.
SUMMIT LAKE and LOST LAKE: Very strong winds are expected this evening south of the forecast zone and naturally occurring large wind slab avalanches on leeward facing terrain are likely.
Soldotna Avalanche Awareness. Join CNFAIC’s Aleph Johnston-Bloom for an evening avalanche awareness chat on Tuesday, Feb 4th, 6-7:30 pm at Odie’s in Soldotna. FREE! Great information for those new to recreating in the backcountry and useful review for experienced folks. Geared to all modes of travel. Hope to see you there!
Yesterday two skier triggered avalanches were reported. In one incident a skier triggered but was not caught in a a small wind slab avalanche in the trees at Tincan. The avalanche was estimated at 50-60′ wide with a crown depth up to 9″ thick, and ran approximately 50-60′ vertically.
Another slab avalanche was reported near Girdwood. The rider and partners avoided the runout. The slab depth was estimated to range from 8”-24” thick and ran 60′ down the slope.
We’re grateful for the positive outcomes, and to the groups for sharing their information.
Skier triggered avalanche near Girdwood. 2.1.20 . Photo: Anon.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Our loose snow from earlier in the week moved around in many places from yesterdays northwesterly outflow winds. This trend of wind transported snow will continue as a storm is forecast for this evening. Although the outflow winds were from the northwest, and the impending storm is calling for southeast winds, it can be difficult to predict which slopes have formed wind slabs. Where windslabs exist on steeper slopes, it could be easy for a human to trigger an avalanche. Small steep wind effected slopes are still suspect. Because of this, it’s essential to look for clues where wind slabs are forming, or have already formed. If you see the winds depositing snow onto the lee of ridges or gullies, that’s a clear indicator a slab could be forming. Where visibility is low or you can’t see your entire route, remain aware of the snow beneath you – you could be entering a wind slab if you feel stiffening of the snowpack, see shooting cracks, or sense hollow drum-like sound in the snow. Any of these signs are cause for reconsidering your route.
Snow transporting along Seattle Ridge. 2.1.20 . Photo: A Dahl
Cornices: Cornices continue to form and could be touchy to human trigger as they build with transporting snow. As always, give cornices a wide margin.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Our snowpack structure contains weaknesses formed before the storms earlier this week. The recent incremental loading from new snow and wind transported snow managed to naturally trigger these weaknesses earlier in the week. Although the snowpack is adjusting to this new load, it remains possible for a human to trigger these layers 2-3′ down in the snowpack. These layers could be easier to trigger in shallow areas and near rocky outcrops. If a wind slab is triggered, it could step down to trigger one of these layers deeper within the snowpack.
Loose Snow Avalanches: On steep slopes with unconsolidated snow, watch for easily triggered loose snow sluffs.
Yesterday: Mostly clear skies with cold northwesterly winds. These outflow winds blew generally in the 20-30mph range with areas toward Seward seeing higher speeds. Temperatures along ridgelines were in the -10 to 0°F range while lower elevations remained mostly in the single digits.
Today: A strong low-pressure system heads into Southcentral Alaska today and will bring cloud cover, strong southeast winds, and a chance for some snowfall this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures are predicted to reach up to 16°F with southeast wind 5 to 15 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Accumulations range from 1-3″ in the Girdwood and Turnagain pass areas, and up to 8″ in the Portage valley.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies with a high near 25°F and low around 21°F. Light snow is expected throughout the day. Winds will be out of the east ranging from 30 to 35 mph, shifting to north winds 5-10 mph in the evening.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 59 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | -1 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | -1 | W | 9 | 24 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 4 | VAR | 8 | 22 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.