Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

After a few very pleasant days of benign weather and easy travel, the next storm system is moving into the region. While lingering old winds slabs in steep terrain have been the primary concern, as winds increase and light snow falls, newly formed ones will become the problem today. There is settled soft snow available for wind transport as well and there is weak surface snow that the new snow will likely not bond to. Surface hoar and near surface facets have been observed from valley bottoms to ridgetops and in some locations rest on top of hard surfaces like wind crusts and melt-freeze crusts. This set-up has the potential to be very sensitive with a new wind slab on top.  It will be important to pay attention to changing conditions. Watch for blowing snow, look for signs of recent wind-loading and signs of instability like cracking from your skis, board or snowmachine. The storm is forecast to ramp up this evening into tomorrow. Expect the avalanche danger to increase overnight.

Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): Observers have been reporting sluffing as they have been accessing steeper terrain during these past few days. These sluffs have been increasing in size and moving faster as the surface snow has become more faceted and less cohesive. Light snow today will add more volume. If you are in steep wind protected terrain remember these can be dangerous if they take you off your feet or push you over a cliff, into trees or other terrain trap.

Cornices: If you are traveling along ridgelines, be sure to keep plenty of distance from the edge of the large cornices that have developed throughout the area. These things have a nasty tendency to break much further back than one would expect, and could fail under the weight of a snowmachine or a skier. ***There have been reports of cornice crevasses opening up. These are another hazard to watch out for as you travel near corniced ridges. 

Cornice crevasse opening along the Raggedtop ridgeline, 1.26.21.

Surface hoar and near surface facets over a melt-freeze crust, 1.27.21. Once buried this weak surface snow will likely become our new layer of concern. 

Glide cracks are appearing throughout the forecast area and there have been glide avalanches occurring in the past few days. With these becoming a hazard in terrain where people are skiing and snowmachining, remember it is important to limit time spent underneath glide cracks. Glide avalanches are totally unpredictable, not triggered by people and are the entire snowpack sliding at the ground. This type of avalanche could be large and unsurvivable if you happened to be in wrong place when one releases. If you see recent glide activity please let us know.