Turnagain Pass
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Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the Alpine and MODERATE below. Recent wind and 8-14″ of new snow have created the conditions to make it likely for a human to trigger a wind slab up to 2′ thick. Storm snow could be forming slab character and easier to trigger in steeper terrain. Cornices are actively developing and likely to be touchy to human trigger. Extra caution and conservative decision making are advised.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Our storm yesterday dropped more snow with more intensely than expected. Snow accumulations totaled 8-14″ at sea level and estimates of up to 18″ in the Alpine. We have more snow in the forecast over the next two days, potentially adding another 4 – 8″. Along with this new snow, we experienced winds in the 20mph range for several hours, easily capable of transporting the new snow. On top of our new snow and increase in wind, we saw a temperature spike of 25°F at some mid elevation stations.
The good news is that our concerns lay within the top 2′ of the snowpack.
In the Alpine and exposed areas near Treeline, we likely have wind slabs forming in the lee of ridges and cross loaded gullies. These wind slabs are relatively fresh and laying atop a faceted surface so could be touchy and likely for a human to trigger today as they adjust. Stay alert if you see freshly pillowed areas, areas with wind effected surfaces, and where the snow feels firmer or hollow.
Cornices: Cornices which have seen recent wind will likely be larger and more touchy than in previous days as they adjust to the additional load. Give them a wide margin.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
At least 8-14″ of snow accumulated at all elevations. This storm snow sits atop a base of varying layers and is unlikely to have had the chance to bond well at the old snow/new snow interface. Additionally, with the temperature increase during the storm, there’s a good chance the new snow is consolidating enough to form slab character. Where this is the case, the snow could feel a bit heavier, or you could see cracks shooting out from ahead of you. Give extra caution on steeper slopes where you feel this distinct difference in density at the old/new interface.
The MLK Jr. storm (1/20) is now consolidated to about 5″ and has formed the first dense layer below our new snow. We should also keep our eye on the weak layer of facets immediately below this density as this could be a slab/weak layer combination of concern. Either way, our primary concerns lay within the top 2′ of the snowpack.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Yesterday: Skies were cloudy with low visibility and intense snow until mid-day. Accumulation totals of 8″ – 12″ . Winds were easterly 10-15 mph with gusts into the 40’s. Temperatures rose into the single digits to low twenties.
Today: Cloudy skies today with snow flurries this afternoon accumulating to 1″ during the day and 4″ – 8″ overnight. Temperatures will range in the teens °F with winds 10-20 mph from the east, then switching from the north by this evening.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 12 | 12 | 0.7 | 52 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 17 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 11 | 9 | 0.4 | 48 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 8 | E | 17 | 41 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 9 | VAR | 8 | 16 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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