Sun, January 20, 2019 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, January 20th, 2019

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Remember LOW danger doesn’t mean NO danger! In the periphery of the forecast zone, there are areas that saw up to a foot of snow last week; the majority of the mountains only saw 2-6″ of snow. This snow fell on weak near surface facets and buried surface hoar. There has been one known human triggered avalanche that failed in the facets below the new snow, which was last Thursday in the Placer Valley. As folks head out to enjoy the good weather above the fog and into the further reaches of the mountains, finding another slab that is reactive isn’t out of the question. These would most likely be around a foot thick, pockety and on the smaller side. Wind loaded steep slopes are the most suspect. Otherwise, the calm and cold weather pattern has moved us into the “normal caution” phase of avalanche concerns. These include:

An outlier slab avalanche:
- Triggering a small slab avalanche would most likely be a lingering wind slab on an exposed ‘unsupported slope’ that sits above a cliff or steep rocky terrain.
Cornice falls:
- Remember cornices often break farther back from ridges than expected. Give them a wide berth.
Sluffs on steep slopes:
- Sluffs are slowly becoming larger as the cold weather eats away and weakens the surface layers, turning it to sugary facets.

*We can’t be lured into forgetting to look for signs of instability and using good travel techniques. Good habits keep us coming home at the end of the day.

South of Turnagain – Johnson Pass/Summit Lake zone: A very poor snowpack structure exists in these areas. Multiple mid-pack weak layers of facets and buried surface hoar have been found as well as a facet/crust combination in the bottom of the snowpack. No recent avalanche activity and calm weather has allowed the pack to slowly adjust. However, little is know of the high elevation at this point and it will be important to evaluate the terrain and snowpack as you travel.

Sluffs and even small slabs are still possible in steep committing terrain. This is the ‘normal caution’ regime.

Thank you to Brent Byrne for capturing the blue skies above the dense valley fog on Seattle Ridge. Also seen here is the crusty surface conditions with a new batch of surface hoar on top. A bad set up for the future and a new load of snow.

Additional Concern

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks are still slowly opening. Although we have not heard/seen one of these release for over a week, limiting exposure under them remains wise. Known areas with cracks are Eddies, Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit, Lipps, Seattle Ridge, Johnson Pass, Lynx Creek, Summit Lake, Petersen Creek, and Girdwood. This avalanche hazard is unpredictable and cracks can release without warning.

Glide cracks on the SW face of Magnum. The photo on the left with the skin track has the crack that seems to be the most active along this ridge.

Weather

Sun, January 20th, 2019

Yesterday: Clear skies sat above dense valley fog up to 2,000′. Winds have been light from the west along ridgetops (5-10mph). Temperatures have been continuing to cool yesterday and overnight, valley bottoms have dropped to the single digits and ridgelines are in the low teens.

Today: What looks to be one last clear sky day is on tap. Thick valley fog is expected to remain up to 1,500′ or 2,000′. Ridgetop winds will remain light (5-10mph) but switch to a more easterly direction. Temperatures should remain in the single digits in valley bottoms and in the teens F at the upper elevations.

Tomorrow: Clouds, warming temperatures and a chance for snow showers move in on Monday. The rain/snow line looks to stay near sea level through tomorrow and only a trace to a few inches of snow is expected. Another larger system pushes in Wednesday, bringing warmer weather and more precipitation, stay tuned!

*Seattle Ridge weather station was heavily rimed and the anemometer (wind sensor) was destroyed. We are currently working to replace it.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	8	0	0	50
Summit Lake (1400′)	2	0	0	20
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	12	0	0	38

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	15	W	5	14
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	17	*N/A	*N/A	*N/A

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.