Tincan: Storm slabs were very touchy yesterday in the Tincan Trees. These avalanches were not very big– most of them were around 6-8” deep and 50’ wide. One did propagate several hundred feet, but it did not run very far.
Notch Mountain: Skiers saw a small natural avalanche release on a steep slope near treeline, which was not large enough to bury a person.
|Signal Word||Size (D scale)||Simple Descriptor|
|Small||1||Unlikely to bury a person|
|Large||2||Can bury a person|
|Very Large||3||Can destroy a house|
|Historic||4 & 5||Can destroy part or all of a village|
The wind has been at work loading heavy snow from Friday and Saturday on a layer of low-density snow that fell on Thursday. This upside-down setup is very sensitive to human triggers, and we also had reports of some natural activity yesterday. These avalanches were small yesterday, but with 9″ snow equal to 1.1″ snow water equivalent (SWE) over the past two days, it will be likely that a person could trigger a dangerous avalanche large enough to get fully buried today on a wind-loaded slope. The most likely places to find fresh wind slabs will be below ridgelines, in cross-loaded gullies, and below convex rollers.
These slabs remain sensitive, and danger will increase when we start to see increased winds and precipitation. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch and a High Wind Warning starting tonight through Monday evening. Pay attention to changing conditions as this next storm approaches, and be aware of clear signs of instability like shooting cracks, collapsing, and recent avalanche activity. We are starting the day with dangerous avalanche conditions, and the weather is not going to make things any safer in the short term. Today is not the day to move into bigger terrain.
Yesterday: We received 4-6” snow at mid elevations, with the mixed precipitation up to around 1400’ for brief periods, and sustained rain below 1000’. Easterly winds picked up during the day, with average ridgetop speeds up to 47 mph and gusts to 77 mph at the ridgetops. High temperatures reached into the upper 30’s F at lower elevations and in the high 20’s F at upper elevations.
Today: Moderate to strong easterly winds continue today, blowing 20-30 mph at the ridgetops. Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-to upper 20’s F at upper elevations and in the low to mid-30’s at lower elevations. The rain line could reach up to 1500’ today, but we are not expecting to see much precipitation until later tonight. We could get 1-3” snow during the day today.
Tomorrow: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch and a High Wind Advisory beginning tonight and extending through Monday evening. We could see as much as 1-2′ of snow by the end of the day tomorrow. Winds are expected to pick up substantially overnight, with sustained ridgetop speeds above 50 mph. Temperatures are expected to remain in the high 20’s to low 30’s F through the day tomorrow. We should see the rain line drop back down, with snow to sea level tonight.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||35||5||0.9||129|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||34||tr||0.1||42|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||33||3||0.5||112|
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||28||SE||13||32|
|03/06/21||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies/Tincan||A Schauer Forecaster|
|03/05/21||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge – SE face, road side||CNFAIC Staff Forecaster|
|03/05/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan, north side||W Wagner Forecaster|
|03/04/21||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum Peak||Carson Jones|
|03/02/21||Turnagain||Observation: Pastoral||Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster|
|03/01/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster|
|02/28/21||Turnagain||Observation: Lynx Creek||Graham --AAS Moto Level 1|
|02/28/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Mike Records|
|02/28/21||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|
|02/25/21||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle flats, above power line||Carly AAS Level 1|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.