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Above 1000′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE. It’s possible for a human to trigger a wind slab in wind loaded terrain and to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche on a buried weak layer. Remain aware of sluff in steep exposed terrain and avoid travel on cornices and under glide cracks.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Over the past several days, the region has experienced winds capable of transporting loose snow. As a result, wind slabs have formed in many exposed areas of the Alpine and Treeline elevations. Due to varying wind directions and localized geography, some areas have experienced this wind effect more than others. Because of this it’s especially important to pay close attention to indicators of wind slab formation where you are and where you’d like to go. These clues of wind effected snow could include: firm surface conditions, cracking, hollow or drum like sound/feel, and visual cues of recent wind activity such as pillowing and scouring. If you find these indicators, it’s prudent to reassess the plan.
Observers from Summit Lake to Crow Pass have found hard wind effected snow along ridgelines and through valleys that channel the wind. Small natural and human triggered wind slabs have been observed and the avalanche that occurred Friday evening on the Crow Pass trail was a large hard slab avalanche involving wind effected snow.
Wind transported snow observed at Mt Adair south of the advisory area. 1.13.2020 Photo: Alex McLain
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Persistent is defined as: “continuing to exist or endure over a prolonged period.” Related and synonymous words include: dogged, insistent, patient, persevering, tenacious, assured, certain, dedicated, determined, firm, hell-bent, intent.
Whether you like it or not, persistent layers including buried surface hoar and facet layers exist within the snowpack. These weak layers have been found 1-3′ deep and have a slab formed on top of them. It remains possible for a human to trigger a large slab avalanche. With that said, the trend of this concern is moving toward unlikely. The confusing part is these weak layers cannot be found everywhere throughout the advisory area. The only way to know if they exist where you’re located is to dig and test. If this type of investigation is not within your skill-set, it’s probably sound to assume they exist. As always, good travel practices are called for: minimizing exposure and traveling one at a time, or choosing routes with lower angles, and outside of the run out of an avalanche path.
In this non-windloaded test pit at Tincan, observers found good stability and no concerning weak layers. 1.13.2020. Photo: CNFAIC Archive
Loose snow sluffs: On slopes out of the wind the surface snow is becoming looser and looser by the day with the cold temperatures. Sluffs are getting larger because of this and gaining volume on longer sustained slopes. Expect sluffing in steep terrain with loose snow. Remain mindful when traveling over cliffs and rocky outcrops.
Cornices: Give cornices plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.
Glide avalanches: Glide cracks continue to open but there have been no recent reports of glide avalanches. Due to their unpredictable potential to release, the travel advice remains the same: limit your exposure while traveling under glide cracks.
Yesterday: Cloudy skies with valley fog. Temperatures were in the teens and dropped into the single digits in the evening. Winds were northwesterly 5-15 mph gusting into the 20s.
Today: Sunny trending to partly cloudy in the evening. Today’s high temperature is expected at 6°F, with a low of -1°F. Winds are forecast to be from the northwest from 15 to 20 mph.
Tomorrow: Clear skies with a high temperature near 2°F, low of -2°F. Winds are expected to be from the northwest to north from 5 to 10 mph.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 10 | 1 | 0.1 | 40 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 11 | 1 | 0.01 | 35 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 10 | W | 8 | 18 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 8 | NNE | 3 | 7 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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