Wed, January 15, 2020 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, January 15th, 2020

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

We have been talking about buried weak layers for a while. Let’s take a quick inventory of the state of the snowpack. It has now been two weeks since the New Year’s Eve storm and we have been in a mostly clear and cold weather pattern. Since that storm the soft surface snow has become faceted and recently we had almost a week of on and off wind. Due to the wind, the faceted surface snow was buried in some terrain by wind slab. The last human triggered avalanche was Friday evening in Crow Pass. Where does this leave us now in relation to triggering an avalanche? Well… It is still possible and something to keep in mind if traveling in steep terrain in the Alpine. The level of wind effect has been different across the advisory area. This is a key factor in where the most hazard is. If you find yourself in a zone with very hard wind effected snow this could be sitting on very weak faceted snow below. This is the suspected set up in the avalanche on Friday. Lingering wind slabs are now persistent slabs because they are associated with buried facets. Additionally there are layers deeper in the pack (Solstice buried surface hoar and/or facets and facets with the December 9th rain crust) that have been indicating that it would be hard to trigger them at this point but not impossible. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to avoid steep slopes with hard snow over soft snow, use safe travel protocol and think about consequences. If you did trigger a large avalanche where would all the snow go? Look for signs of instability but realize you may not see them with this type of avalanche problem.

Propagation in a snowpack test on Manitoba at 2700′ on a weak layer of buried facets, 1.11.20. Photo: Alaska Avalanche School Pro 1

Propagation in a snowpack test on Goat Mountain, 1.10.20. Photo: CNFAIC

Additional Concern

Dry Loose

Dry Loose

Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): On slopes out of the wind expect sluffing in steep terrain. The surface snow is becoming looser and looser by the day with the cold temperatures.

Cornices: Give cornices plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.

Glide avalanches: Due to the unpredictable potential to release, limit your time spent under glide cracks.

Weather

Wed, January 15th, 2020

Yesterday: Skies were partly cloudy with patchy valley fog and very light snow showers. Temperatures were in the single digits to low teens. Winds were westerly 5-10 mph with gusts into the 20s. Overnight temperatures were mostly in the low single digits while a few stations recorded temperatures just below 0°. Winds were light and westerly.

Today: Mostly clear skies with temperatures in the low single digits. The winds are forecast to be light and becoming calm in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures look to be slightly inverted with temperatures in the the single digits at upper elevations and around 0° or just below in valley bottoms. Winds remain calm.

Tomorrow: Sunny skies, calm winds and temperatures in the single digits. This cold and clear pattern looks to persist into the weekend until skies become cloudy Saturday evening and with a chance of snow on Sunday.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	6	1	0.01	38
Summit Lake (1400′)	4	1	0.01	15
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	7	4	0.04	37

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	4	W	8	22
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	6	W	2	16

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
02/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Wagner / Keeler Forecaster
02/07/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Pete’s North	Megan Guinn
02/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Rookie Hill	Tony Naciuk
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.