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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE above 1000′. Triggering a large avalanche on a weak layer buried 1-3′ deep is possible. In addition, there is the potential a person can trigger a lingering wind slab in wind loaded steep terrain or a sluff on steep protected slopes. Give cornices a wide berth and limit exposure under glide cracks.
*Yesterday afternoon there was a near miss avalanche incident along the Crow Pass summer hiking trail. We will be visiting the site today and publishing more details as soon as they become available. We are extremely thankful everyone is OK.
Today: The Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center and the Hatcher Pass Snow Riders Club are hosting a free avalanche workshop at 11 am at the Gold Mint parking lot. Check out our events page for more information. Also, be sure to check the HPAC’s Saturday morning advisory!
Monday night: Join CNFAIC’s Aleph Johnston-Bloom at the Sitzmark at Alyeska on January 13th at 7pm for an evening of avalanche awareness. A big thank you to Alyeska, Powderhound and the Sitzmark for hosting and providing avalanche rescue gear giveaways and more. Details HERE and see you there!!
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
As mentioned in the Bottom Line, there was an avalanche triggered along the Crow Pass summer hiking trail yesterday. A backcountry rescue response was initiated and all parties were located and ok. We will update this link with details as they become available.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
One more clear sky day and cold temperatures are in store before clouds head in along with some snow flurries possible tomorrow. The snowpack remains in its holding pattern of sorts with various weak layers sitting 1-3′ below the surface, possibly deeper, while the surface snow continues to loosen and facet in many zones.
What this means for us today is the possibility of triggering a slab avalanche needs to remain on our radar. Although we don’t have details on yesterday’s avalanche yet, this only highlights that dangerous slab avalanches are still possible to trigger. Generally speaking, there are faceted weak layers and a layer of buried surface hoar that are responsible for not allowing the snowpack to completely stabilize. We’ve found these layers mostly 1-3 feet deep and showing signs that they are becoming harder to trigger with time. This is a tricky problem because the snowpack might ‘seem’ stable even if it is not. Signs of instability are not usually present before a slope releases in this case and many tracks can be on a slope before someone hits just the wrong spot. Thin areas in the snowpack are the most likely places to trigger a slide, they are often near rocks and on top of rollovers. Watching our partners, exposing only one person a time and being aware of consequences if the slope does slide are all good ways to help stack the odds in our favor.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Light to moderate northwesterly winds have been over the region for the past several days and bumped up into the moderate range yesterday morning. Although much of Turnagain Pass has been spared the wind, other areas such as the Girdwood Valley and Portage Valley have seen just enough wind to transport snow along the higher peaks, as can be seen in the photo below.
Winds have quieted down to 5-10mph, where they are expected to remain through the day. Due to the light winds, fresh wind slabs are not likely to form. However, finding and triggering an older wind slab is possible. These slabs could be sitting on weak faceted snow, which can make them easier to trigger. Watch for areas that have been loaded by the winds, these often have a smooth rounded shape. Also feel for stiffer snow over softer snow, hollow feeling snow and cracking around you in the snow surface. These are all signs of a wind slab.
Wind transport along the higher terrain on Goat Mountain in the Girdwood Valley yesterday morning. 1.10.20.
Loose snow sluffs: On slopes out of the wind the surface snow is becoming looser and looser by the day with the cold temperatures. Sluffs are getting larger because of this and gaining volume in longer sustained slopes. Watch your sluff.
Despite the very cold temperatures, glide cracks continue to slowly open in certain areas around the region. Although none have released into avalanches for several weeks that we know of, it is still wise to limit exposure under them as they are unpredictable and could release at anytime.
Glide cracks that are oozing open in the Peterson Drainage. 1.10.20. Photo: Turner Pahl
Close up of cracks and how the snowpack is buckling as gravity pulls it down the slope in slow motion. 1.10.20. Photo: Turner Pahl
Cornices: Cornices are looming along ridges. As always, be sure to give them plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.
Yesterday: Sunny skies and very cold temperatures were over the region again yesterday. The northwest winds picked up into the 10-15 mph range along ridgetops in the morning hours before quieting down midday. Temperatures were between -20 and -5°F at all elevations with valley bottoms being slightly colder than higher elevations.
Today: Clear and cold weather conditions are on tap again today. The good news is warmer air is moving in at the higher elevations and stations are reporting temperatures in the positive (5-10°F). Valley bottoms remain frigid (-25 to -10°F) and should stay chilly through the day. Ridgetop winds have shifted around and are blowing from the east briefly this morning before forecast to swing back to the northwest and stay light, between 5-10mph.
Tomorrow: Clouds, warmer temperatures and a few snow flurries are forecast for tomorrow as a front pushes through Southcentral. Only a trace to a few inches of snow is expected along with temperatures in the teens and a brief period of increased easterly winds. A return to cold and clear weather is expected for Monday and into the work week.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | -1 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | -13 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | -1 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 2 | W | 9 | 24 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 0 | N | 5 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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