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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all slopes above 500′. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Large wind slab avalanches in the Alpine and storm slab avalanches in the trees, 3-4+’ thick, are likely for a person or snowmachine to trigger. These could be triggered remotely from the bottom, side or top. The 2.5-3.5 feet of new snow from the past three days has yet to bond. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Look for signs of instability and choose terrain wisely.
LOST LAKE and mountains near Seward: Heavy snowfall has been reported in these areas. Where 2-3 feet of new snow has fallen, large and dangerous human triggered avalanches are likely.
Summer Hiking Trails: Avalanche danger exists on summer trails that pass through avalanche paths, such as they Byron Glacier Trail and many others.
*A Special Weather Statement has been issued by the National Weather Service. Today marks the beginning of a strong storm system moving in, peaking tomorrow and Monday. Avalanche danger is expected to rise to HIGH tomorrow if this storm verifies.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
The remnants of widespread avalanche activity were seen yesterday morning. Despite the low visibility, the bottom of many avalanche paths that can be seen from the Seward Highway from Bird to Seward had large debris piles. Additionally, many steep rolling hills along the highway had avalanched up to 3′ deep (storm snow avalanches). There were three reports of avalanche activity in specific areas from yesterday:
Johnson Pass: Several slab avalanches (2.5-4′ thick) were remotely triggered by snowmachiners on/near the Johnson Pass winter trail on steep rolls and hills. This group made it to an elevation of 2,200′ before turning around due to numerous Red Flags. In one case, they tested a very low consequence steep roll connected to a larger roll (40-60′ tall and ~40 degrees steep) and the entire face in every direction released. The larger avalanche paths in the area had avalanched and large debris piles were seen. On their way out they noticed many other steep rolls that they had triggered on the way in from flatter terrain.
Sunburst: A large, 3′ thick, storm slab that released naturally earlier Friday morning was seen near the Sunburst up-track in the trees (photo below). Report HERE.
Wolverine: A large natural slab avalanche was seen on the lower SW shoulder of Wolverine ridge on the northern end of Turnagain Pass. Slab was around 3-4′ thick and around 300′ wide. Likely released early Friday morning.
Storm slab avalanche in the ‘trees’ on Sunburst, in the mid-elevation. 1.8.21. Photo: Anonymous.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It is not the day to push into steep terrain, nor will it be through the weekend as the danger rises again. Not only are avalanches likely to be triggered, they could be triggered remotely as was seen along the Johnson Pass trail. The mountains just had 2.5 -3.5′ of snow over the past three days along with strong east winds. Another 3′ or more is expected starting later today through Monday. It’s clear from what is listed above in our ‘recent avalanches’ section that we just went through a natural avalanche cycle and the snow isn’t bonding quickly. It fell on a weak surface (that surface we were skiing, boarding or riding on over the New Year), which is composed of small near surface facets (sugary snow) with buried surface hoar. Both these layers once buried can cause us grief as it limits new snow from bonding right away. How long will it take for the snow to bond this time, well that’s yet to be determined. With more weather on the way, it’s a moot point really as today we are still well within the 48-hour rule of letting the mountains adjust before getting onto the slopes that are luring us.
Storm slabs, these are defined as slabs composed of the new snow that have little wind effect, are equal in depth to the new snow, which is in the 2.5-3′ range. Storm slabs are what is present mostly in the trees and the type of avalanche most likely to catch a person today. Even on small steep rollovers an avalanche could pose a significant threat if you’re caught upside down and pinned in a terrain trap. For tree skiing or riding, make sure to keep an eye on your partners, be suspect of steep rollovers, and watch for cracking in the snow around you.
Although only 2-5″ of new snow is expected today, it will be the sustained moderate to strong ridgetop winds adding to the thickness of the wind slabs. Wind slabs could now be as thick as 5-6′, maybe even thicker.
Cornices: This storm was your classic Chugach sticky snow kind of event with just the right amount of wind to build large cornices. With more wind ramping up today ahead of this next Chugach storm, they may continue to release naturally and possibly trigger an avalanche below. Although these are hard to reach safely now, once these storm are over, they could be quite dangerous and easy to break.
Snow pit at 1,400′ on Seattle Ridge to the looker’s right of Repeat Offender slide path. 1.8.21.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
4-7′ below the snow surface is the Dec. 1 rain crust/facet combination that exists at elevations between 1,000′ and 2,500′. This layer continues to degrade and weaken; turning into a faceted layer in places. Although it is unlikely that a person could trigger an avalanche on it, we are watching to see if a storm slab avalanche is able to step down and make it fail. So far we have no information on this, but it is a question that will help us assess if the layer is an issue moving forward or not.
Yesterday: Light snowfall and obscured skies were over the Turnagain Pass area yesterday. Between 4-6″ of snow fell (~0.5″ of SWE) with lesser amounts in Girdwood and south of Turnagain Pass. The rain/snow line hovered near 200-300′. Ridgetop winds have been averaging 20-30mph from the east with gusts up to 57mph. Temperatures were in mid 30’sF at sea level, near 32F at 1,000′ and in the mid 20’sF along ridgelines.
Today: Obscured skies and light snow showers are expected to continue through today before increasing in intensity tonight. Between 2-5″ should fall today with another 6-10″ overnight tonight. Rain/snow line looks to drop to close to sea level before rising to 300-400′ tonight. Ridgetop easterly winds will remain in the 25-30mph range and are expected to increase tonight. Temperatures had dropped a few degrees this morning and should remain in the low to mid 30’sF at sea level and near 20F along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: The low-pressure front pushing in today will ramp up tomorrow and through Monday (possibly longer..!). Heavy snowfall is slated for Sunday and Monday totaling a potential 3+ more feet of snow in the mountains. Temperatures remain on the warmish side and the rain/snow line could creep as high as 1,000′. Stay tuned!
Fun Fact: As of yesterday, Turnagain Pass has had more snowfall (225″) than the Pass had all of last season (220″)! Wow…
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 4 | 0.5 | 100 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 4 | 0.4 | 98 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | NE | 24 | 57 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 24 | *N/A | *N/A | *N/A |
*Settle Ridge anemometer is rimed over and not reporting.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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