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Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′ where it’s possible to trigger an avalanche breaking on a buried weak layer 2-3′ deep within the snowpack. Watch your sluff and give glide cracks and cornices a wide berth. Remember to use terrain progression and good travel protocol.
Several areas across the Chugach National Forest are open to over snow vehicles. Please avoid parking in areas that will impede DOT’s progress to clear snow from the New Years Eve storm. Reference the “Riding Areas” tab on this page for the latest info on motorized openings.
If you are heading to Hatcher Pass check hpavalanche.org.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Three snowmachine triggered avalanches were reported yesterday in the Turnagain area. These all likely failed on the Solstice buried surface hoar.
Main Bowl, East aspect ~2400’. Snowmachine triggered Friday morning. Possibly remote triggered. Photo: Travis Smith
G. Predeger investigates the buried surface hoar in the crown of the snowmachine triggered avalanche in Main Bowl, Turnagain Pass. Photo: Chris Yelverton
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Three snowmachine triggered avalanches were reported yesterday in Main Bowl on the backside of Seattle Ridge, with two occuring on slopes with previous tracks. Our layer of concern remains buried surface hoar from Solstice, which sits within the top 3′ of snowpack in many areas throughout the region. These were all triggered on slopes at elevations above the New Years Day rain crust. Where this crust ends is variable across the region. On Seattle Ridge it was observed ending around 2300′ and in Summit Lake around 2500′. Where the crust doesn’t exist the snow immediately above the buried surface hoar has formed a dense slab under the fresh unconsolidated surface snow. This is a formula for more human triggered avalanches and this trend could continue into the future. Signs of instability are unlikely at this point and it might be the first or the tenth person that triggers the avalanche. Travel one at a time in on steeper slopes, remain outside of the runout when observing others, and choose terrain carefully. If the slope does slide will you end up in a terrain trap?
This persistent weak layer is buried under a dense slab and remains a concern throughout the region. Photo: R. Van Luit
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Dry unconsolidated storm snow and cold temps have us thinking about sluff management. Clearing skies Thursday allowed observers to spot a handful of loose snow avalanches in steep terrain, including on the front face of Seattle Ridge. Be mindful of consequences if you were to get knocked off your feet by a fast moving sluff in steep terrain.
Glide cracks: Glide cracks are the precursor to glide avalanches which are unpredictable and can release at anytime. When possible, limit exposure near and under glide cracks. It can be difficult to see glide cracks when approached from above, especially in low light conditions.
Glide cracks observed in the Library near Kickstep yesterday. Photo: Andy Moderow
Cornices: Cornices have been steadily building throughout the region. Avoid travel on cornices, and limit your exposure when beneath them. Cornices can obscure the true ridgeline and may fail far back from the edge.
Corniced ridge above Sunburst’s SW face, 1.2.19. photo: Paul Wunnicke
Yesterday: Mostly to partly cloudy skies with no precipitation in the region. Temperatures were mostly single digits. Winds were easterly 1-3 with gusts into the 10’s. Overnight temperatures near 0°F.
Today: Partly cloudy skies with a chance of patchy freezing fog. Temperatures will likely range from 10°F to -6°F. Winds expected to be light and easterly. Overnight temperatures will be mostly near or below zero from sea level to ridgetops.
Tomorrow: Sunny, with a high near 2°F. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the afternoon.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 4 | W | 5 | 12 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 2 | VAR | 2 | 7 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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