Summit & Central Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: The glide crack and glide avalanche cycle in Summit is still occurring. These have been seen on Fresno, Wilson, Manitoba, and Gilpatrick. There has been no known human triggered avalanches in the Summit Lake area.

Weather Recap: Last weekend the Summit lake area had cold, clear days. Tuesday into Wednesday a brief storm brought roughly 3” of snow equaling 0.3” snow water equivalent (SWE) accompanied by strong ridgetop winds out of the east. Temperatures rose to above freezing briefly in Summit Pass. 

Weather Forecast: We are anticipating a brief storm to reach the Kenai peninsula Saturday afternoon and last into Monday morning. Clouds will begin to move in Saturday afternoon accompanied with east winds increasing into the 10 to 20 mph range. Sunday will be cloudy and windy with east winds averaging 20 mph and 50+ mph gusts at higher elevations. 6-10” of new snow is forecasted to fall by Sunday evening. Temperatures in the 20’s F on Saturday are expected to increase on Sunday to the low 30’s F.

Our primary concern is wind slab avalanches over the weekend. We are expecting this hazard to increase with the arrival of the storm on Sunday morning. The combination of ridgetop winds from the east gusting as high as 50 mph and 6-10” of new snow will likely create fresh wind slabs around 1-2’ deep by the end of Sunday. Areas where we can usually see wind slabs are below ridgelines, across gully features and below rollovers. Watch for red flags such as blowing snow, recent avalanches, cracks that shoot out from your machine, board, or skis and whumpfing sounds. 

Across the Summit area weaker snow was observed last week on the surface that will be buried by this weekend’s storm. This may make storm snow and wind slabs more reactive and easier to trigger. This will be important to assess as conditions change.  If you are skinning or snowmachining, look for recent avalanches, test small safe slopes, and be aware of any cracking or collapsing as you travel in the backcountry. If you feel like sharing your findings, take some pictures and let us know. Help out by submitting observations here!

Last weekend’s surface hoar may be under this weekend’s storm and wind slabs. Photo by Andy Moderow 12.30.2023

There are a couple layers in the snowpack we are keeping track of. The first is surface hoar buried around 1’ deep, which has been identified in several pits but is not showing signs of being reactive nor have we seen or heard of any avalanches failing on this layer. However, it is a layer we are watching especially as it gets loaded from this storm. 

Additionally, the Thanksgiving crust is buried roughly 3’ deep. This layer has also not given us a reason to be overly concerned. With that said, crust/facet combos like the Thanksgiving crust can “wake up” or be more unstable with a significant new load of snow and in areas with shallower snowpacks, such as Summit Lake. The forecast snow amounts this weekend are not likely to be enough snow to overload the layer, but it’s still something to keep on our radar.

Summit pit showing buried surface hoar and the Thanksgiving crust. Photo by Any Moderow 12.30.2023

Glide cracks and avalanches are still being observed across the Summit area. Because these avalanches release to the ground, the cracks that precede them can be easy to spot as “brown frowns” as they open or “brown spots” when they release into an avalanche. It is important to minimize exposure under these glide cracks because they can spontaneously release and be large and dangerous.

Glide avalanches on South Gilpatrick. Photo by Trevor Clayton 1.1.2024