Summit & Central Kenai Mtns

Archives
Issued
Fri, January 12th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sat, January 13th, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Daniel Krueger
Conditions Summary

Weekend Avalanche Outlook

Saturday, Jan. 13 – Sunday, Jan. 14

Bottom Line: Strong easterly winds will increase the likelihood of triggering an avalanche 1-2′ deep where snow has been blown into sensitive slabs. This will make it possible to trigger an avalanche large enough to bury a person. In some areas these wind slabs may be forming above weaker snow that will make it easier to trigger an avalanche. Additionally, glide avalanches continue to release naturally across the forecast area causing very large avalanches. 

Special Announcements

We are excited to announce that we will be attending the Winter Rendezvous on January 27th at the Trail Lake Lodge in Moose Pass! This is an annual event where we will be introducing ourselves to the public, spreading the word about our weekend outlook in the Summit and Seward areas as well as answering any questions you have! There will be activities, food, and live music as well. 

Here is a map showing snowmachine access in Summit Pass. This is a great tool that shows open and closed snowmachine boundaries.  You can also download it to your phone.

Recent Avalanches

Recent Avalanches: Glide cracks have been opening and causing avalanches throughout the Summit area. These have been seen on Fresno, Manitoba, South Gilpatrick, John Mtn, near Russian Gap, Lonestar, and Roaring Ridge. Possible wind slabs on Tri-Tip were observed on January 10th. Near Russian Gap there also appears to be a natural cycle of avalanches that possibly failed on a weak layer on January 9th. 

Weather Recap: Last weekend in Summit pass, a storm brought around 3” of snow along with strong easterly winds gusting 50-60 mph. Clear skies early in the week became cloudy, with southwest winds gusting in the 40s and no new snow. Temperatures cooled to single digits on Sunday gradually rising to above freezing Thursday night.

Weather Forecast: A storm from the southwest is forecast to bring cloudy skies, strong east winds and a trace of new snow to the Summit Pass area Saturday night into Sunday. Easterly winds gusting 25-40 mph are expected to die down Friday evening, increasing on Saturday afternoon into the evening with sustained speeds of 20-25 and gusts around 30 mph. Winds will decrease on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be in the 20s F to low 30s F before decreasing on Sunday afternoon. A high pressure system is moving into the area next week and there is a good chance we will see cold temperatures with outflow winds picking up midweek.

Glide cracks, glide avalanches, and natural avalanches on near Russian gap. 01.09.2024

 

 

 

 

Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

East winds gusting 30+ mph are expected Friday night into Saturday afternoon, that will likely create fresh wind slabs 1-2’ deep. On some slopes these wind slabs are forming above weaker snow on the surface, making them more reactive and easier to trigger. These avalanches may be big enough to bury or injure a person. Wind slabs can be found on leeward features such as below ridges and rollovers, and in cross loaded gullies. Watch for red flags such as recent avalanches, blowing snow, shooting cracks underneath your machine, skis, and board. Look for these clues as you travel, test small safe slopes, and avoid steep wind load terrain. 

Cornices: Large cornices have been forming on ridges. There have been reports of cornices failing and triggering avalanches. Limit exposure under cornices especially if you see blowing snow on the ridges. Failing cornices may trigger larger avalanches deeper in the snowpack.

Snow blowing off the ridges in the Seward zone will likely be what we see over the weekend. 01.09.2024 

3-6″ fresh wind slab that cracked beneath my splitboard. 01.11.2024

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

New glide cracks and glide avalanches are being reported on a regular basis all across the Summit Pass area. While they are generally not in places where people have been recreating, these avalanches are large and can send debris to lower angle terrain. It is important to minimize exposure under these glide cracks because they can spontaneously release and be large and dangerous since they fail at the ground and involve the entire snowpack. 

Poor visibility may make it difficult to know if you are under a glide crack. It can also be hard to see old glide cracks when they get buried by fresh or wind deposited snow.  If you are unsure where glide cracks are, choose routes that minimize overhead hazard and pick safe spots carefully, spending as little time as possible under steep terrain. Past observations explain where some glide cracks are and there is also a map that identifies mountains in the Summit area to familiarize yourself with the location of these glide cracks. 

Glide avalanche on Fresno. 1.11.2024  

Large glide crack on Roaring Ridge. 01.10.2024

 

 

 

 

 

Additional Concern
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

Although there have been no known avalanches on these weak layers we are keeping our eye on them. In areas where the snowpack is shallower, facets above the Thanksgiving crust and weak facets buried at the ground are failing in snowpit stability tests. Exposed rocks, wind scoured features and probing in the snow are all ways to identify if you are traveling in shallower snow. These layers are not likely to avalanche, but if you want to avoid this problem, enjoy lower angle terrain.

 

Weather
Fri, January 12th, 2024
Weather Forecasts

NWS Point Forecast: Point forecast for the Summit Lake area.

NWS Avalanche Weather Guidance (AVG) forecast page: Mountain weather forecasts for the region. Zoom in on the map to find point forecasts for Summit.

Windy.com Spot Forecast: Spot forecast for Summit (tip: compare models using the links at the bottom of the page).

 

Weather Stations

Summit Creek Snotel

AK DOT&PF Summit Lake Weather Station 

AKRR Ridgetop Weather Station

Observations
Recent Observations for Summit & Central Kenai Mtns
Date Region Location
05/05/24 Summit Avalanche: Manitoba and Surrounding Areas
04/25/24 Summit Observation: Road Survey – Seward Highway Tern Lake to Portage
04/23/24 Summit Avalanche: Tenderfoot
04/20/24 Summit Observation: Tenderfoot
04/10/24 Summit Observation: Manitoba
04/10/24 Summit Observation: Colorado
04/07/24 Summit Observation: Fresno
04/06/24 Summit Observation: Tenderfoot
04/04/24 Summit Observation: Gilpatrick North
03/27/24 Summit Observation: Colorado
Riding Areas

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This is a general backcountry conditions summary. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.