Summit & Central Kenai Mtns

Recent Avalanches: The Summit Lake area saw a few natural avalanches that occurred last weekend during the Holiday storm (December 22-24). These avalanches included a small slab on the south side of Manitoba and a larger slab on the southwest face of Spirit Walker. There was a large natural avalanche that occurred on December 24 on a west facing slope above the Sterling Wye intersection along the Seward Highway. We believe this was a large wind slab from the Holiday storm. There has also been glide avalanche activity in the Summit zone. The newest occurred on the southeast face of Gilpatrick mountain and was noticed on December 22.

Weather Recap: The Holiday storm brought about 8” of new snow to the Summit zone between December 22-24. This storm was accompanied with strong easterly wind blowing sustained around 20 mph gusting in the 60’s and 70’s mph. Temperatures were fairly warm during this storm, but the snowline remained at road level at Summit Lake. The rest of the week remained relatively calm and cold. The northwest wind picked up Thursday, December 28, into the teens for a few hours.

Weather Forecast: The forecast is calling for a storm to arrive Saturday night that is positioned to the west of the Kenai Peninsula. We won’t get a direct hit from this storm, but more of a glancing blow. Saturday morning should be calm and clear with temperatures rising from below zero into the teens F. Saturday afternoon clouds should build and by Saturday night ridgetop easterly winds are forecast to be blowing in the 20-30 mph range and gusting to 50 mph. The precipitation forecast for this storm is low with 1-3” forecast by Sunday mid-day. Easterly winds should remain elevated through Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the teens F. This storm is forecast to stay cold enough for the snowline to remain at sea level.

Spirit Walker ridge in the sun. 12.26.23

With winds ramping up Saturday evening into Sunday, wind slab avalanches will be our primary concern for the weekend.  Although there could be some lingering wind slabs in the upper elevations from the winds that occurred on Thursday, it is unlikely they will be easy to trigger.  However, if the forecast verifies it will be likely that you will find fresh wind slabs above 2,500’ that could be 1-2’ deep and easy to trigger.  As of Friday there is 8” of fresh snow on the surface that can be moved around by this windy storm despite the low new snow amounts. Watch for snow blowing off ridges or peaks and being deposited in specific places like the leeward side of ridges and gullies. The signs of a wind slab are stiff snow over softer snow and cracks that shoot out from your snowmachine, skis, or board. This is the type of problem that can be tested by jumping on a small “test slope” or digging a hand pit in a safe wind loaded area. 

There are two layers we are keeping track of right now in the Summit zone snowpack. The first is a widespread layer of surface hoar that was buried on December 22 and is now 1-2’ deep. We have little snowpack information from the past week so we have a lot of uncertainty around this layer. The information we do have tells us it would be on the unlikely side that a person would trigger an avalanche on this layer. We recommend careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision making until we can gather more information. If you are getting out, send us an email or submit an observation!

The second layer we are concerned with is the Thanksgiving crust, which we know exists from sea level to 3,800’, possibly higher. The last avalanche we think might have failed on this layer likely occurred on December 19 on Wrong Mountain near the Sterling Wye. This layer is now buried 3-5’ deep in most areas of the Summit zone. We believe it is unlikely a person would trigger an avalanche on this layer, but we recommend having this in mind if you head into steep and consequential terrain.

Snowpack at 3,275′ on Manitoba.  12.26.23

Another glide avalanche was observed this week on Gilpatrick Mountain and several were observed last week. These avalanches are completely unpredictable and they fail at the ground, which makes them dangerous. Limiting time under a glide crack is a good plan or better yet find another route to avoid this problem. 

Glide avalanche on Gilpatrick Mountain’s southeast face at about 2,000′.  12.23.23