Wed, April 10, 2019 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, April 10th, 2019

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

As the saying goes, low danger doesn’t mean no danger. Despite the clearer skies, cooler temperatures and a good re-freeze on the surface overnight; there are still a few ‘normal caution’ avalanche issues to be aware of if heading into the hills. These are:

GLIDE AVALANCHES: Although it has been several days since we have seen a glide crack release into an avalanche in high traveled zones, avoiding/limiting travel under cracks is prudent! They can release at anytime, are completely unpredictable and can be very destructive. The good news is, they are easy to avoid if you look for them as they show their cards with a large brown crack.

CORNICE FALLS: Daytime warming will help to de-stabilize cornices. As always, and especially in the spring, give cornices an extra wide berth.

WET LOOSE: Wet sluffs on steep warm sunny slopes could be triggered today – if the sun stays out long enough this afternoon. This is most likely on upper elevation southerly slopes that have a few new inches of snow from over the weekend.

WIND SLABS: Some areas received enough snow over the weekend to blow into shallow wind slabs (North end of Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley and Portage areas). These slabs could still be sensitive on shaded slopes above 3,000′. Watching for areas of wind drifted snow and cracking in the snow will be key. Even small wind slabs can be dangerous in high consequence terrain.

Looking ahead, stormy weather is on the way and expect avalanche danger to increase tomorrow, Thursday.

Seattle Ridge on Sunday, Apr 7. Many glide cracks still hang in the balance despite the many glide avalanches that have released on this ridgeline.

The Cornice Line on Sunburst Ridge yesterday. Although some cornices have shed much of their bulk during the March storms, many cornices remain large and waiting to peel off.

Video link HERE.

Weather

Wed, April 10th, 2019

Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies were over the region. Light rain fell in Portage Valley (.3″) while no measureable precipitation was recorded for Turnagain Pass or Girdwood. Ridgetop winds were easterly 10-20mph during the day before quieting down to the 5mph range overnight. Temperatures climbed to near 30F along ridgelines and the low 40’sF at 1,000′ before dropping overnight into the 20’sF at most elevations.

Today: Mostly clear skies are expected over the region with high clouds, and possibly light showers, moving in later this afternoon. Ridgetop winds are light and easterly this morning but forecast to rise into the 10-20mph by this evening. Clear skies last night allowed temperatures to cool into the 20’s at the low elevations and should bounce back into the 40’sF by this afternoon. Ridgetop temperatures look to climb into the low 30’s with daytime warming.

Tomorrow: A large low pressure system churning in the Northern Pacific will push a frontal wave over our area Thursday. Heavy rain up to 1,500′ with wet snow above is expected along with strong easterly winds (50-60mph). Snowfall amounts in the high elevations look to be in the 5-10″ range at this point. For Friday, cloudy skies, light showers and decreasing winds are expected as the storm slowly moves out.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	35	0	0	62
Summit Lake (1400′)	33	0	0	19
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	35	0	0	57

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	26	NE	8	32
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	31	SE	6	14

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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