Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE due to recent snowfall and wind loading. Human triggered slab avalanches 1-2′ thick are likely on slopes 35 degrees and steeper, especially in wind loaded terrain. Additionally, give cornices a wide berth and avoid travel under glide cracks. Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making are essential if headed into avalanche terrain. Look for signs of instability.
SUMMIT LAKE / JOHNSON PASS: This area has a very poor snowpack structure with multiple weak layers. Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches. Triggering an avalanche in the new snow has the potential to initiate a more dangerous slab, breaking deeper in the snowpack.
SEWARD/ LOST LAKE: Avalanche danger has risen in this region as well and storm snow avalanches are likely today.
BYRON GLACIER TRAIL Hikers: Remember this trail is in avalanche terrain and the popular snow cave is very dangerous and unstable.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Triggering a 1-2′ thick slab avalanche on slopes 35 degrees and steeper is likely today. Wind loaded slopes are the most suspect. Yesterday the advisory area saw steady snowfall with an additional 4-10″ of snow (favoring Girdwood) and easterly wind loading throughout the day. Sunburst saw gusts into the 80s and Max’s into the 60s. Observers noted cracking and small test slopes being easily triggered later in the day. Visibility made Alpine observations difficult. The strong winds eased off in the evening and there was a break in the snowfall. Snow started again early this morning and is forecast to continue today throughout the advisory area. The old wind harden snow surface from before the storm and Saturday’s low-density snow will make it tough for the new snow to stick right away. ‘Upside-down’ snow was noted by observers yesterday. Today look for recent avalanches, shooting cracks and listen for whumpfs or hollow sounding snow. Choose terrain carefully. Cornices may be quite tender and should avoided.
Storm slab triggered on Sunburst at 1300′, 2-17-19. Photo: Elliot Gaddy
Storm slabs triggered on Tincan later in the day, 2-17-19. Photo: Ray Koleser.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
New snow and wind loading have the potential to add stress to underlying weak layers. As we have been hammering home for weeks, in Turnagain Pass roughly 1-3′ below the snow surface sits a layer of buried surface hoar. Periphery zones such as Summit Lake and Johnson Pass harbor a poor overall snowpack structure with a variety of weak layers. Although these persistent weak layers have not been reactive lately, additional load may start to tip the balance. It is good to keep in mind that triggering an avalanche today could to step down into old weak layers and initiate a larger more dangerous slide. This is more likely in Summit Lake and the central Kenai mountains.
Glide cracks are unpredictable, not associated with human triggers, and can release without warning at any time. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on slopes directly below glide cracks.
Yesterday: Skies were obscured with snow falling throughout the day. Winds were easterly 20-40 mph gusting as high as 88 mph on Sunburst. Temperatures were in the 20Fs to mid 30Fs. Overnight skies were mostly cloudy and winds were easterly 5-15 mph gusting into the 20s.
Today: Mostly cloudy skies and snow showers, 3-8″ of snow forecast. Rain/snow line around 700′. Temperatures in the 20Fs to mid 30Fs. Winds will be southeasterly 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Light snow showers continue overnight with temperatures cooling into the low 20Fs.
Tomorrow: Skies clearing in the early morning becoming mostly sunny. Winds shifting to the northwest and increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40s. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20Fs. The next storm system is forecast to move into the area Wednesday afternoon.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 29 | 2 | 0.3 | 62 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 2 | 0.2 | 28 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 29 | 5 | 0.6 | 58 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | NE | 20 | 88 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25 | E | 13 | 38 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
01/31/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass area | Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster |
01/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Backdoor | AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30 |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Brooke Edwards |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | W Wagner |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | Tony Naciuk |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx Creek | Megan Guinn / W Wagner |
01/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | John Sykes Forecaster |
01/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Schauer/ Guinn |
01/21/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Elias Holt |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.