Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
Strong winds impacting the region today will cause the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE at all elevation bands in exposed terrain as triggering a wind slab becomes possible. As these slabs build over the weak surface snow the danger may rise to CONSIDERABLE in the Alpine later in the day. Natural avalanches may become possible and human triggered avalanches may become likely. Pay attention to changing conditions. In addition, glide cracks may release into avalanches. Limiting/avoiding exposure under them is prudent and give cornices a wide berth.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory issued for 9 pm this evening to 11 am Sunday for Portage Valley and Turnagain Pass.
SUMMIT LAKE / JOHNSON PASS / LYNX DRAINAGE: Keep in mind buried weak layers exist in the middle and base of the snowpack. More potential for triggering a large slab avalanche exists in this zone, especially with wind-loading. Choose terrain wisely.
The 11th Annual Alyeska Ski Patrol Auction benefiting the Alyeska Ski Patrol Avalanche Canine Program is tonight from 8-10 pm at the Sitzmark! Enjoy the “entertainment” and bid on an early morning ski with your favorite patroller.
For the Saturday morning Hatcher Pass avalanche forecast click HERE.
|Signal Word||Size (D scale)||Simple Descriptor|
|Small||1||Unlikely to bury a person|
|Large||2||Can bury a person|
|Very Large||3||Can destroy a house|
|Historic||4 & 5||Can destroy part or all of a village|
After enjoying sunny skies and a mostly stable snowpack a series of storms will begin to affect the advisory area today. Temperatures are on the rise, winds are increasing and precipitation will start to fall later in the day. Today is the day to expect changing conditions and be on the lookout for signs of instability. Initially increasing winds may trigger small loose snow avalanches but as they continue and intensify, wind slabs will build in exposed terrain. There is soft snow available for transport and wind slabs may be quite tender as they develop over very weak surface snow formed during the cold weather. Well developed surface hoar was observed at lower elevations and along some ridge tops. Near-surface faceted snow was observed at all elevations. Below 1500′ there is a crust below the weak snow. This is not a good set-up for new snow and wind-loading. Look for blowing snow, cracking, collapsing and be especially heads-up if natural wind slabs start releasing.
Rapidly warming temperatures and the additional blowing snow may also make cornices easy to trigger over the next few days. As always, give these a wide berth.
Weak surface and just below the surface snow on Center Ridge, 1-10-19.
Weak surface snow on the Gold Pan ridge, 1-11-19. Photo: Allen Dahl
South of Turnagain – Lynx Creek/Johnson Pass/Summit Lake zone: As the weather pattern changes and the potential for wind loading increases it becomes even more critical to remember that a poor snowpack structure exists in these areas. The Christmas buried surface hoar has been found as well as concerning facet/crust combinations in the bottom of the snowpack. Avalanches may initiate near the ground and be quite dangerous. If you’re headed this way, evaluate terrain exposure and the snowpack as you travel. Be on the lookout for signs of instability.
Identify glide cracks and avoid spending any time under these features. Glide cracks are opening and have avalanched within the last week. Glides are completely unpredictable and not human triggered. The rapid temperature rise and additional snow load over the next few days may or may not cause an increase in glide activity.
Yesterday: Skies were clear and temperatures were cold with daytime highs in the single digits. Valley bottoms remained below zero. Winds were light and easterly. Overnight clouds bulit and temperatures began to increase.
Today: Mostly cloudy skies with an increasing chance of precipitation throughout the day. Temperatures will continue to rise into the 20Fs. Easterly winds will build and blow 15-25 mph with gusts into the 40s. These are forecast to increase overnight. Snowfall will increase overnight and temperatures will rise with the potential for rain to fall at sea level.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies and snow continues tomorrow with the brunt of the storm in the early morning. Winds will remain strong and temperatures will continue to rise with the warmest temperatures on tap for Monday. The series of fronts and lows are forecast to impact the region into the week.
*Seattle Ridge weather station was heavily rimed and the anemometer (wind sensor) was destroyed. We are currently working to replace it.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||6||0||0||53|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||-1||0||0||20|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||8||0||0||41|
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||8||*N/A||*N/A||*N/A|
|05/22/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Nick D'Alessio|
|05/12/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit||Heather Thamm|
|05/07/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks||CNFAIC Staff|
|05/05/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ WW Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass||Joel Curtis|
|04/30/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton|
|04/29/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.