Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Cornices remain large and looming along many ridgelines of our forecast zone. On Sunday and Monday evidence of natural cornice fall was observed and several human triggered cornices were reported. The best way to manage this hazard is to give cornices a lot of space and avoid travel directly underneath them. Approach ridgelines with caution and be aware of groups traveling in the same zone as you who could inadvertently triggered one from above.

WIND SLAB: There is plenty of snow available for transport and we may see winds pick up into the 20’s mph later in the day. There is a layer of buried surface hoar below 2-5” of new snow from the last few days and this may become our next weak layer. Today keep an eye out for drifting snow and shooting cracks. These are signs of fresh wind slab development. Triggering an older wind slab is becoming pretty unlikely at this point, but not out of the question in very steep terrain. A period of strong winds on Christmas has created some stiffer pockets of snow in the Alpine. 

Large cornices still intact on the SW facing terrain of Magnum. This photo also has some natural cornice fall observed on Mon (12.24) as well as glide cracks opening up in the lower right corner. 

A thin layer of surface hoar lays below a few inches of snow accross our forecast zone and will be a suspected weak layer if winds pick up and form wind slabs. 

The most recent glide avalanches observed were in Lynx Creek drainage on Monday. Numerous glide cracks have been slowly opening up around our region including commonly traveled areas like the SW aspect of Sunburst and Corn Biscuit, and in Warm-up (-1) Bowl on Seattle Ridge. It is important to remember glide cracks can release into full-blown avalanches at any time and are not associated with human triggers. The best way to manage this problem is to keep your eyes peeled for cracks and limit travel underneath them.

Glide crack in Warmup (-1 Bowl) on the North facing slope. This is a common crack that forms and has been known to release. Photo taken on 12.24 by Wendy Wagner.

If you are headed to areas south of Turnagain, keep in mind triggering a large slab avalanche is still possible. Buried weak layers, roughly 2-3′ below the snow surface, have been found in the Summit Lake zone and as far south as Lost Lake. Numerous observations this week in Turnagain Pass have been finding a stable snowpack in the older November snow near the ground. Some uncertainty remains around Johnson Pass, Lynx Cr drainage and Twin Peaks/Silver Tip where the snowpack often transitions to a shallower structure similar to Summit Lake. Observations in Summit Lake over the last few weeks have been finding facets associated with several crusts near the ground with reactivity in stability tests. The most recent avalanche activity in this zone was observed last week (Dec.20) where some of these avalanches stepped down to older layers within the snowpack. Should you head into the periphery of our forecast zone evaluate the snowpack and terrain as you travel, and keep your senses alert for any whumpfing — an obvious clue for triggering a slab avalanche.