Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
|
Archives 
|
The Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the Alpine where triggering a slab avalanche is possible on all aspects. Below 2500′ the danger is LOW where freezing temperature are helping a thin and wet snowpack form a crust.
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Last night was the first freeze in five days since a series of warm and wet storms ended yesterday morning. Not much snow exists below 2000′ due to heavy rain that may have reached ridgetops at times. We don’t have a lot of information from the upper elevations, above 2500’, at this point. We know 4+’ of snow fell over a four-day period and strong Easterly winds have loaded leeward features and cross-loaded other aspects. Prior to this storm a melt-freeze crust and surface hoar formed in the upper elevations. We don’t know how much avalanche activity occurred during the storm and if this poor structure is lingering in places that haven’t avalanched.
Today triggering an avalanche is possible in the Alpine and could be large enough to bury a person. If you hike into the Alpine where there is enough snow to slide ease into avalanche terrain with a cautious mindset. We are still in the 48-hour period since heavy snow and strong winds formed storm slabs. Avoid avalanche terrain if you observe any signs of instability: recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or whumpfing.
Webcam pictures from DOT weather station provided our first glimpse into the Alpine yesterday afternoon – Northern and Western aspects of Tincan above 2000′.
Brief clearing in the afternoon provided a nice glimpse of an Eastern aspect of Seattle Ridge. Note how little snow exists in the lower elevations.
West aspect of Butch in foreground and Northern aspects of Tenderfoot and Tri-Tip in the background. Photo from Mon Nov. 26 at Lower Summit Lake.
Yesterday: Moderate Easterly ridgetop winds diminished yesterday morning becoming light by early evening. Skies were obscure most of the day a broken period late afternoon. Temperatures dropped below freezing last night allowing 0.1 € of snow water equivalent to fall as an inch of snow to sea level from Girdwood to Turnagain Pass last night.
Today: Scattered snow showers and a trace of snow are possible this morning with clearing skies in the forecast this afternoon. In the upper elevations temps will average in the low 20Fs and upper 20Fs near sea level. Winds will remain light and variable.
Tomorrow: Temperatures will start to increase as another storm moves into our region Friday into Saturday. This storm will have a Southwesterly flow, which typically favors Hatcher Pass for precipitation. Temperatures are expected to reach above freezing and rain is likely in the mid and lower elevations. Increasing temps and winds are expected in the Western Chugach and Kenai Mountain.
*Seattle Ridge weather station stopped collecting wind data at 10 pm on Nov 27, 2018.
| Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
| Center Ridge (1880′) | 29 | 1″ | 0.1 | 10 |
| Summit Lake (1400′) | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 1″ | 0.16 | *N/A |
| Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
| Sunburst (3812′) | 21 | ENE | 5 | 27 |
| Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 26 | *N/A | *N/A | *N/A |
| Date | Region | Location | Observer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Triangle, Seattle creek | Will Morrison |
| 04/18/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain Pass Road Obs | Andy Moderow |
| 04/18/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge, approximately 300 yards south of the up track | Brent Byrne |
| 04/17/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Road obs | Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster |
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Wendy Wagner Forecaster |
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain Pass, non-motorized side seen from Seattle Ridge | CNFAIC Staff Forecaster |
| 04/16/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Lance breeding |
| 04/15/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster |
| 04/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs | A Schauer Forecaster |
| 04/12/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Johnston-Bloom / Latosuo Forecaster |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
| Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Glacier District | ||
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.
