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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Mon, November 5th, 2018 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, November 6th, 2018 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
The Bottom Line

The 2018/2019 winter avalanche season has begun!

It is looking like winter in Turnagain Pass, Girdwood and through much of the state. This is thanks to a widespread snow storm on Oct. 29th that brought 8″ of snow to Girdwood, 5-8″ along the Seward Hwy through Turnagain Pass and up to a foot or more at the higher elevations. The new snow fell onto older October snow above 2,500′ but onto bare ground below this. As of Monday morning, Nov 5th, there have been three reported skier triggered avalanches. Here’s a look at the snow/avalanche events to date:

– Oct 29th, 6-8″ of snow to sea level, 12+” of snow in the Alpine, followed by cold, clear weather.

– Oct. 30th, we received our first report of a small remote triggered avalanche along the  Crow Pass Trail.

– Oct. 31st,  avalanche triggered by a skier taking a few jumps on the snow at the entrance to a line off of Pastoral Peak. This avalanche was up to 2′ deep yet only 20′ wide.  

– Nov 2nd, Wind event, 24 hours of sustained 20-30mph east winds in the Alpine

– Nov 3rd, another avalanche on Pastoral Peak, triggered intentionally by a skier performing a ski cut. This was a shallow wind slab, 3-8″ thick, 30′ wide and running full path.

These early season avalanches are good reminders that a thin snowpack can still produce a slide. They are also good reminders that a layered snowpack exists above 2,500′ in the Alpine where snow from mid-Oct existed before Oct 29th.  

Red Flags to watch for:

  • Recent avalanches
  • Cracks in the snow that shoot out from you
  • Whumpfing (collapsing) of the snowpack
  • Rapid changes in weather (snow/rain/wind/temperature)

Remember to always consider the consequences of an avalanche, even a small wind slab can knock a person off their feet and somewhere they don’t want to go.

Pastoral Avalanches, North aspect, ~4,700′. Photo from Oct 31st (Andy Kubic)

   

 

Photos from Nov 3rd (Brady Deal)

     

 
A few photos from Turnagain Pass on Friday, Nov 2nd. Below is Seattle Ridge (Duncan Wright).

Below left, winds on Seattle Ridge Nov 2nd. Right, wind flagging off Sunburst ridge (Heather Thamm).

 

Thin snowpack… this is looking up at Repeat Offender on Seattle Ridge. Side note: sun crust formed last week on south aspects!

 

 

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Mon, November 5th, 2018
Alpine
Above 2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
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Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Announcement
    Announcement

As we wait for more snow to fall, we are going to provide updates and some educational reminders for the season. 

The theme for today is GET THE GEAR! from the National campaign, Know Before You Go.  New from KBYG are online training courses – check them out here – they are HIGHLY recommended as a refresher or to supplement your professional avalanche course!

Investing in avalanche rescue gear is an investment in your life and your backcountry partner’s life. If your gear is old (analog beacon) or you are new to winter backcountry travel we recomend the following when purchasing or upgrading your rescue equipment. 

Triple Antenna Beacon with multiple-burial marking

-Aluminum Probe at least 270cm long (Alaska has a deep snowpack)

-Aluminum Shovel made by a manufacturer who specialized is avalanche rescue equipment (retire your old plastic shovels)

An Avalanche Air Bag is an additional piece of safety equipment that does not replace the three essentials above, but has proven to reduce the likelihood of a full-burial.

***The BEST avalanche rescue equipment is the gear you practice with often. Remember these skills are perishable and practicing avalanche rescue once a month with your regular backcountry partners is something we should all strive for. Check out our calendar for upcoming Avalanche Courses and some free CNFAIC hosted Awareness Talks and Rescue Workshops. 

Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
05/06/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Pastoral Peak, north face
04/10/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Wolverine
04/10/20 Turnagain Observation: Eddies lookers right shoulder
04/09/20 Turnagain Observation: Bench Peak
04/04/20 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
04/04/20 Turnagain Observation: Pete’s North
03/26/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan – Proper (SW facing)
03/26/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Seattle Ridge
03/25/20 Turnagain Avalanche: Sunburst Uptrack @ 2000′
03/24/20 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain – Road Observations
Riding Areas
Updated Mon, October 26th, 2020

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Placer River
Closed
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Primrose Trail
Closed
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Snug Harbor
Closed
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Summit Lake
Closed

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.