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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations due to yesterday’s storm snow combined with moderate to strong winds overnight. Human triggered wind slabs 1-2′ thick will be possible. Expect loose snow sluffs in steep protected terrain. Additionally, old weak layers deeper in the pack may be triggered, creating a larger avalanche. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected in areas seeing new snow such as Hatcher Pass and the Western Chugach. See the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center Facebook page – avalanche danger has increased to CONSIDERABLE.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday snow fell throughout day with storm totals ranging from 10-15+ inches of low density snow. Avalanche activity reported yesterday was limited to easily initiated loose snow sluffing and small storm slabs. The winds increased last night from the West gusting as high 58 mph on Sunburst. The storm snow is so light that it will have likely been blown into wind slabs that may be tender today. Expect loading and slabs along ridgelines and look for pillowed or drifted snow. The winds are forecast to shift to more Northerly today and there maybe loading on multiple aspects. Watch for shooting cracks and areas with stiffer snow. Steep, unsupported slopes that are loaded will be the most suspect. Look for blowing snow and pay attention to changing conditions.
Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): On steep slopes protected from the wind expect the new snow to sluff easily. These loose snow avalanches may be fast running and entrain snow quickly.
Sunburst winds yesterday and overnight.
Look for loading patterns across the terrain today.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The overall snowpack structure across the advisory area is poor and it is important to keep in mind that larger slides breaking in persistent weak layers could still occur. The new load yesterday added to the weight from snow and winds over the weekend and earlier last week. This incremental loading can slowly overload weak layers making them more prone to triggering. Furthermore, avalanches triggered in the upper layers of the snowpack, like a fresh wind slab, have the potential to step down to the buried weak layers. In the upper elevations a layer of buried surface hoar from Jan. 21st continues to show signs of reactivity and in the mid-elevations a layer of facets over a melt-freeze crust is suspect. Observers on Tincan noted both layers yesterday.
Deep Persistent Slabs: At the high elevations above 3,000′, deeper persistent layers could ‘wake up’ if the wrong spot is found. Old weak layers of facets and buried surface hoar sit in the bottom half of the snowpack. This structure is most pronounced in places with a thin overall snow cover, such as the South end of Turnagain Pass, the Summit Lake area and Crow Pass.
Snowpack structure on Magnum. The slab depth over the buried surface hoar and facets has now increased.
Yesterday snow fell throughout the day. Storm totals ranged from 10-15 inches of low density snow. Winds were Southerly 10-20 mph during the day. They shifted to the West in the evening and increased to 15-30 mph with gusting into the 40s and 50s. Temperatures were in the teens and 20Fs. Temperatures steadily dropped overnight into this morning.
Today is forecast to be mostly to partly cloudy with temperatures in the single digits to low teens. There is a chance of snow showers this evening. Winds will be Northwesterly 10-20 mph gusting into the 30s. They are forecast to increase overnight.
Tomorrow look for clearing skies, sunshine and temperatures in the teens. Northwesterly winds may continue tomorrow. The sunshine continues Thursday and then clouds build with a chance of snow over the weekend.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 8 | 0.2 | 74 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 18 | 3 | 0.4 | 31 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 20 | 5 | 0.24 | 67 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | ESE-WSW | 17 | 58 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 17 | E-W | 15 | 40 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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