Wed, February 15, 2017 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, February 15th, 2017

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Considerable (3)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Considerable (3)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Considerable (3)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Considerable (3)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Natural avalanches were again observed yesterday in the advisory area as the second wave of the storm brought another round of strong winds, heavy precipitation and rising temperatures. Rain fell up to approximately 2000′ and saturated the upper layers of the snowpack at lower elevations. In the past 2.5 days Turngagain Pass has received 3 inches of water (SWE) and over 3.5 was recorded in Girdwood. This water weight (either as snow or rain) combined with strong winds overloaded the existing snowpack. Many of the avalanches observed were releasing at the new snow/old snow interface but a few looked to have released farther into the snowpack on the old faceted layers.

It is important to remember that today a variety of avalanche concerns are present and will likely be triggered if you venture into the mountains. Snow is expected to fall today will an additional 5-15″ forecasted as temperatures cool down. Storm slab avalanches at all elevations, wind slabs in leeward terrain, large cornices along ridgelines and wet snow at lower elevations should all be taken into consideration. Natural avalanches are still a possibility today and it’s crucial to understand that human triggered avalanches are likely. Keep slope angles less than 30 degrees and avoid being in avalanche runout zones. Pay close attention to signs of instability: recent avalanches, cracking and collapsing (whumpfing).

Large avalanche on the west face of Pyramid observed yesterday from Tesoro.

Natural avalanches on Seattle Ridge observed from the motorized parking lot yesterday.

Rain runnels

Avalanche Problem 2

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Sustained high ENE-SE winds continued to move snow yesterday and obvious cross-loading and scouring was observed. Expect leeward areas to be loaded and sensitive to triggering. Winds are not forecasted to be very strong today but with additional snow in the forecast watch for changing conditions if they do increase and start to move the snow around. Look for cracking and avoid pillowed or drifted areas.

Warm, wet snow and high winds are the perfect cornice building conditions. Steer clear of ridgelines. Cornices may break farther back than expected and poor visibility may make it really hard to judge where they are. If they do fail they could trigger a slab avalanche below.

Wind transporting snow and obvious cross-loading on Seattle Ridge yesterday.

Additional Concern

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Weak snow (facets and depth hoar) in the lower layers of the snowpack continues to be a concern in our advisory area. Avalanches occurring in the upper layers have the potential to step down and release the entire snowpack in some places. If this does happen the volume will be large and could run long distances. As more and more weight is added to the snowpack this becomes more of a concern. A few of the naturals yesterday looked to have run into older faceted snow. The possibility of these large avalanches is another reason for conservative terrain choices today.

Weather

Wed, February 15th, 2017

Yesterday was mostly cloudy with a window of clearing in the afternoon. Snow and rain fell throughout most of the day. Rain/snow line was approximately 2000′. Temperatures were in the high 30Fs in the valleys and mid to high 20Fs at upper elevations. ENE-SE winds were gusting up to 100 mph early in the morning. They stayed in the 30s with gusts in the 40-50s for much of the day. Snow and rain showers continued overnight and winds mellowed out early this morning. Temperatures cooled slightly in the last few hours.

Today will be mostly cloudy and another pulse of moisture is expected to bring 5-15″ of snow. Winds are expected to shift to the SW and be 10-20 mph with gusts into the 30s. There is a general cooling trend forecasted throughout the day with cold air moving in from the south (yep sounds odd). From the NWS discussion this morning, “Arctic air has wrapped all the way around from the Bering Sea within the larger scale surface low.” There is another pulse of moisture tonight and a generally unsettled pattern forecasted throughout the week.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	36	4	1	74
Summit Lake (1400′)	35	rain	.2	25
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	35	6	1	61

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	24	ENE	35	107
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	26*	SE*	32*	51*

*Seattle Ridge is recording intermittenly, data from 6am-6am is incomplete.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.