Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Over the weekend many people were out in the mountains slope testing and there were no human triggered avalanches reported. With a stable weather pattern dominating our region and very little changes affecting the snowpack we are in a Normal Caution phase for avalanche issues. These include:

1- Triggering an outlier avalanche. This would most likely be an ‘unsupported slab’ that sits above a cliff or steep rocky terrain. More on this below in ‘Additional Concerns.’

2- Triggering an old wind slab – Avoid hard stiff snow sitting in steep rocky terrain where a small isolated wind slab could have high consequences.  

3- Triggering a cornice fall. Cornices are small right now, but similar to wind slabs they could take you down somewhere you don’t want to go. Give cornices a wide berth.

4- Sluffs on steep slopes. Small sluffs were observed yesterday, and as the surface snow becomes weaker under clear skies the potential for bigger stuff will increase. 

Remember LOW hazard doesn’t mean NO hazard! Look for signs of instability and use good travel techniques.

Final ridge up Pastoral, near 4400′ Photo: Andy Moderow

Even with LOW avalanche danger it is still important to remember the weak layer 1-2′ below the surface i.e. the notorious Nov 16th buried surface hoar. Although we have not seen an avalanche release in this layer since December 3rd and the slab character has been changing due to the cold temperatures, there are still slopes away from the ‘popular’ zones that have yet to be tested. These are the areas most suspect. Triggering is unlikely but not impossible!