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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Thu, March 10th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, March 11th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Heather Thamm
The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today above 1000′. Glide cracks continue to release naturally and without warning and threaten a lot of mid-elevation terrain. Indentify slopes with glide cracks and avoid being within the runout of a glide. General caution is advised for the alpine where wind slabs, loose snow, and large cornices should be factored into your decisions.

* Similar avalanche conditions exist in the Summit Lake area, but the snowpack  is more complex and variable. Click  HERE  for a video and observation from yesterday that shows an addtional conern to be aware of.  

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Thu, March 10th, 2016
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks continue to threaten large areas of terrain throughout Turnagain Pass, Girdwood, and Summit Lake. There were several new glide avalanches seen yesterday from the Seward Hwy, and a large glide released on the East face of Seattle Ridge a few days ago. Glide cracks are on all aspects within the mid-elevation band (1000′-2500′), and some areas like the SW face of Cornbiscuit and Tincan are covered. This avalanche problem is impossible to predict and is not associated with human triggers. We have been talking about the glide avalanche problem for over two months in the advisory and as long as glide cracks continue to open up, move and release, we will stress the importance of avoiding them. 

Yesterday a glide on the Southwest aspect of Orca released mid day. Click HERE is see more photos of glides that released in the last 2 days. 

 

Glides cracks on the SW face of Cornbiscuit as seen yesterday. Photo by Liz Rapetto. Click HERE for an observation that shows a portion of a glide (out of view) that partially released on Cornbiscuit.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

In the alpine be on the lookout for a variety of surface snow instabilities and changing conditions later in the day.

Wind Slabs: Today as ridgetop winds start to increase by late afternoon be aware of newly forming wind slabs in steep terrain. Should you see blowing snow or shooting cracks consider altering your plans. This is the kind of hazard that might catch you off guard in the afternoon as conditions change.

Loose snow: On shaded aspects dry loose snow sluffing will warrant management in steep terrain.  Sluffs have been fast moving with the ability to entrain a significant amount of surface snow in big terrain. On solar aspects pay attention to how the sun is warming the surface snow. Triggering a wet loose avalanche may be possible if the sun is packing some heat today.

Cornice falls: Very large cornice features can be found along most ridgetops throughout Turnagain Pass. Cornices have a tendency to break further back than expected. Give them lots of space, and limit time under them. Should you get too close, a snowmachine or person could tip the balance. 

 

 

Weather
Thu, March 10th, 2016

Yesterday skies were sunny and ridgetop winds were calm.   Daytime high temps reached the low 40’s F and overnight temps dipped down into the mid 20’s F. Ridgetop winds have increases slightly overnight from the East, averaging 10mph.

Today skies are expected to be mostly sunny becoming cloudy with scattered snow showers by early evening. Easterly ridgetop winds will continue to increase throughout the day and are expected to reach 15-30mph by early evening. Daytime temperatures will be in the 30’s F and may reach the low 40’s at lower elevations.

A weak low will move through the area Tonight through Friday bringing scattered showers with up to a few inches of new snow. Winds will be moderate from the East and temperatures will continue to be warm, upper 20’s -30’s F.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 32   0   0   133  
Summit Lake (1400′) 29   0   0   43  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 33   0   0   106  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 26   ENE   6   17  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 29   SE   5   19  
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Riding Areas
Updated Mon, December 02nd, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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