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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sun, November 29th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, November 30th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is  MODERATE  in the Alpine elevations today. The recent series of storms has added 1-3′ of snow and the sustained winds have loaded leeward slopes.  Pockets of wind slab may be sensitive to human triggers in upper elevation  starting zones today.  Ease into steeper terrain, practice safe travel techniques and look for signs of instability,

The danger is MODERATE  in the Treeline elevation band. The rain and warm temperatures have left the snowpack moist and unsupportable at mid-elevations. There is the possibility of triggering a wet loose avalanche in steep terrain where the snowpack remains saturated. If the temperatures dip below freezing and a supportable surface crust exists the hazard will be LOW.

Below Treeline (1,000′) there is not enough snow coverage to warrant a danger rating.

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Sun, November 29th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

The combination of wind and new snow in the Alpine over the past few days has created potential for wind slabs on steep leeward slopes. Slabs could be 1-4′ thick. Look for recent evidence of loading in the terrain. Cornice formation and scalloped or pillowed snow are good indications of deposition. Watch for cracking and collapsing under the weight of your skis or snowboard. Listen for hollow sounds and whumpfing.

** We are still concerned with a layer of weak faceted snow that formed during the colder temps in early November. These facets exist in many areas at the base of the snowpack but we have not seen evidence that they are reactive. We have limited information about the overall distribution of this layer in the Alpine and continue to be suspect of it lurking below the recent storms. 

Photo below is an image of the cross loading on the SE face of Seattle Ridge.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
More info at Avalanche.org

The snowpack received rain up to 2500′ in the last series of storms. Temperatures in the Alpine cooled off and created a rain crust. At Treeline and below in areas that have not frozen there remains the possibility for wet avalanches in steep terrain. Observers reported “mashed potato” snow conditions and boot penetration to the ground. Additional rain showers and temperatures above freezing at lower elevations today will continue to create a hazard where the snow remains saturated. If the temperatures drop the danger will be LOW. Watch for new roller balls, wet punchy “trap door” snow and “push-a-lanches” starting at your skis or snowboard.

Yesterday observers reported rain runnels and roller balls up to 2500′.

Photo: Runnels on the Tincan uptrack. Credit: Ted Grosgebauer

 

Weather
Sun, November 29th, 2015

Rain and snow showers will continue in the region today. Some areas will see clearing skies. This system will dissipate as a ridge builds over Southcentral ahead of the next front appproaching from the Southwest. Temperatures will remain in the 30’s today and it is forecasted to gradually cool over the next few days. Winds will be light and Easterly.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 32   2   .2   NA  
Summit Lake (1400′) 32  0  0  9
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 33   1    .35 16  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 25    ENE 17   46  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 27   NA NA   NA  
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Riding Areas
Updated Wed, December 11th, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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