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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Thu, November 26th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, November 27th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
The Bottom Line

A HIGH avalanche danger exists in the Turnagain Pass and Girdwood regions where over a foot of new snow combined with strong wind has created an unstable snowpack. Natural and human triggered slab avalanches (roughly 2′ thick) are likely.  A  MODERATE  danger exists in snow-free gullies and runouts below 1,000′ where debris can run from an avalanche occurring above.

Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended in the Eastern Turnagain Arm region (Girdwood/Portage/Turnagain Pass) and the Kenai mountains. Check out this quick tutorial on how to identify avalanche terrain. Eating turkey, watching football and/or hitting Alyeska for their opening day are good alternatives.

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Thu, November 26th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
High (4)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
High (4)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
High (4)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
High (4)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

The powerful storm that moved through last night has created a textbook avalanche scenario: Heavy snowfall (12-16+”) overnight with significant wind has rapidly loaded slopes. Although the new snow has fallen on a variety of preexisting surface conditions, the ‘rapid loading’ itself is the concern. Slab avalanches up to 2-3′ think are possible on windloaded slopes. These can release on their own, naturally, or are likely to be triggered by a person.

If you are headed out into the backcountry – steering clear of ALL avalanche terrain is advised. This includes runout zones. Keep in mind treed areas, such as Tincan and Eddies have avalanche terrain intermixed with safe terrain. Expert level snowpack and terrain assessment skills are needed to negotiate these areas safely.

Additional Concern
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

A number of glide cracks still exist at mid-elevations on Turnagain pass, notably in areas like the Tincan trees. Travel under glide cracks should be avoided. Glide avalanches are very unpredictable and the recent warming temperatures could add to the potential for a glide to release.

Weather
Thu, November 26th, 2015

A warm Southwesterly flow has dominated the weather for the past several days. Light to moderate rain began yesterday and reached up to 2,000′ in places before turning to snow overnight. The rain/snow line is currently hovering near 500′ where it is expected to remain for the day. See snowfall and water totals below. Winds have been strong out of East averaging 30-40mph.

For today, light snowfall is expected to add 2-4″ at the mid-elevations before tapering off and allowing skies to breakup. Tonight another system moves in from the Southwest, yet is a bit cooler that the last one. We are looking at rain/snow lines near 500-1000′ with snowfall amounts in the 6-12″ range by Friday evening. More on that tomorrow!

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 31   10+   1.1   28  
Summit Lake (1400′) 34   1   0.6   11  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 33   16   2.2   25  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 25    ENE 30   77  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 26   SE   20   53  
Observations
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Riding Areas
Updated Fri, May 01st, 2020

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Placer River
Closed
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed as of May 1. Thanks for a fun, safe season!
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Primrose Trail
Closed
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Snug Harbor
Closed
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Summit Lake
Closed

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.