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Archives
ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sun, November 1st, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, November 2nd, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

WELCOME TO THE 2015/16 WINTER SEASON!!

The Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center is gearing up for the much-anticipated €˜El Nino’ season of 2015/16; This has started off with a Halloween treat of around 4″ of snow at Turnagain Pass. We will be issuing intermittent updates during the next few weeks on this page as well as posting on our Facebook and Instagram pages (Facebook link in the upper right corner and Instagram: @chugachavy). Full advisories with danger ratings will begin sometime around Thanksgiving or as snow and avalanche conditions warrant.

A call for observations!

Crowdsourcing is a major part of our information gathering process. We rely heavily on you, the public, to help us keep tabs on snow and avalanche conditions. Anyone getting out this weekend? Please send us some photos, videos and/or a sentence or two on what you are seeing in the mountains (We LOVE photos and videos by the way!). The best way to do this is on our €˜submit an observation’ link (under €˜observations’). You can also use your phone if you have a web browser. Thank you in advance!!

Upcoming events:

                      Friday, Nov 6th:  Southcentral Alaska Avalanche Workshop  – Alaska’s regional professional workshop

                      Thursday, Nov 12th:    Friends of the CNFAIC Fall FUNdraiser  – Don’t miss this chance to support your                                                
                                                                           avalanche center and see Greg Hill discussing “Mountain Lessons”  

            Thursday, Nov 19th:  Ski Film Night – Fade to Winter  – Get your stoke on while supporting avalanche education and forecasting

             More events, including our free awareness courses and Fireside Chats are listed on our calendar page.

Early season hazards:

You know the drill: Rocks, alders, crevasses and, yes, avalanches. It doesn’t take much snow to slide €“ if it’s not enough to bury a person, it can still rake someone over the ground (the cheese-grater effect, unpleasant for obvious reasons).

What to clue into? 1) Recent avalanches in the past 1 or 2 days? And 2) rapid changes in weather? This includes, recent or current snowfall, wind, rain on snow and warm temperatures after a storm. These are the biggies and what not to forget from our avalanche awareness courses. It’s time to tune our brains into the avalanche scene. Check out this graphic from Canada below:

     

Motorized use:

A reminder that motorized use on the Chugach National Forest remains closed until there is sufficient snow cover. You can monitor changes in open/closed status below on the €˜conditions report’. Status is updated intermittently as conditions change.

Sun, November 1st, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side
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05/07/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs
04/29/24 Turnagain Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs
04/27/24 Turnagain Observation: Johnson Pass
04/23/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side
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04/20/24 Turnagain Avalanche: Spokane Creek
04/16/24 Turnagain Observation: Cornbiscuit
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.