Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tuesday provided a heavy dose of localized (to Turnagain pass) storm snow in the core advisory area with up to 19” accumulating at the Center Ridge SNOTEL site (1880’) in 19 hours.  The storm quickly shut off with only a trace of snow falling yesterday allowing Tuesday’s storm slab to settle to about 12”.  This load coupled with 3-5” forecasted today is enough of a concern to warrant careful snowpack and terrain evaluation before skinning up or jumping into committing terrain.

Storm slabs/ wind slabs:

These are expected to be as deep as 1-2’ in areas affected by the wind, proving large enough to bury a person.  We don’t have a lot of information in terms of how well this recent storm is bonding to, or affecting underlying weaknesses so it’ll be prudent to pay attention to any red flags including recent avalanches, shooting cracks or whumphing prior to committing to steep terrain.  If experiencing and red flags today, these are the sure signs that the snowpack below your skis is unstable and slope angles need to be dialed back.  Quick hand pits or jumping on small (no consequence) test slopes will be a good way to gather more data while making your own snowpack assessment.

Deep slab/ persistent weak layers: 

This is less of a concern today but is still being pondered, particularly on the South end of the advisory area where persistent weak layers may be found closer to the surface.

With the majority of the ski season behind us, now is not the time for complacency.  Continue to practice safe travel protocols.  Ski slopes one at a time and utilize lookouts, positive communication, escape routes and islands of safety. 

Natural and human triggered sluffs are expected in the new snow on all aspects and elevations. Though the Sun isn’t forecasted to make an appearance today, warm ambient temperatures and potentially rain at lower elevations may be enough to trigger loose snow sluffing and roller balls above and below treeline.