Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

In the Alpine above 2500’ a slab 2-3’ has formed over the last four days. The majority of this snow fell on March 16th, but strong Northeast winds and additional precipitation have likely made slab depths closer to 4-5’ on leeward starting zones. Below this slab lies weak faceted snow sitting on a crust bed surface. This weak layer was very touchy on Tuesday, but as we move away from the initial loading event the slab has become denser and more supportable. The scary part about this avalanche problem is if the right trigger point was found the consequences could be very serious. Obvious signs like shooting cracks, collapsing and natural avalanches might not be present today making it easier for us humans to be lured into steeper terrain.

Today’s travel advice is simple: Avoid traveling in steep terrain and keep your slope angles under 35°.

The combination of sunny beautiful weather following a four-day storm cycle is our biggest hazard today. It will be tempting to venture into bigger terrain making it easy to “talk yourself” into thinking the conditions are more stable than they really are. Here are some classic traps to be aware:

“Someone just skied that line and it didn’t slide.”

“I’ve skied this slope a 100 times and I’ve never seen it slide.”

“Our snow pit results were good, therefore this slope must be safe.”

“I just heard/felt a “woomph”, but my partner has a lot more experience than I do and he/she doesn’t seem to be concerned.”

Two days of Northeast winds averaging 30-40 mph have loaded South and Western slopes and fresh wind slabs up to 2’ thick could be easy to trigger on leeward features. If a wind slab is triggered it could be enough force to initiate the larger problem described above. This will be an additional reason to avoid steep terrain.

If temperatures reach the mid 40’s F as forecasted for today, wet point-release avalanches on sun-exposed slopes are possible. They will likely be seen on steep Eastern aspects first and then on Southern aspects as the Sun moves throughout the day. 

There is currently a lot of water draining through the snow pack at mid elevations and temperatures could be warm enough to start meling the newly formed surface crust. It is possible that a small point release from the Alpine could pick up enough volume and momentum to entrain wet snow at this elevation band. Today might be a good to day to avoid places like Seattle Ridge where access into and out of the Alpine is on a steep Eastern slope.

Yesterday large puddles and flowing water were observed near the road along the Seward Hwy in Turnagain Pass.