In the Alpine above 2500’ a slab 2-3’ has formed over the last four days. The majority of this snow fell on March 16th, but strong Northeast winds and additional precipitation have likely made slab depths closer to 4-5’ on leeward starting zones. Below this slab lies weak faceted snow sitting on a crust bed surface. This weak layer was very touchy on Tuesday, but as we move away from the initial loading event the slab has become denser and more supportable. The scary part about this avalanche problem is if the right trigger point was found the consequences could be very serious. Obvious signs like shooting cracks, collapsing and natural avalanches might not be present today making it easier for us humans to be lured into steeper terrain.
Today’s travel advice is simple: Avoid traveling in steep terrain and keep your slope angles under 35°.
The combination of sunny beautiful weather following a four-day storm cycle is our biggest hazard today. It will be tempting to venture into bigger terrain making it easy to “talk yourself” into thinking the conditions are more stable than they really are. Here are some classic traps to be aware:
“Someone just skied that line and it didn’t slide.”
“I’ve skied this slope a 100 times and I’ve never seen it slide.”
“Our snow pit results were good, therefore this slope must be safe.”
“I just heard/felt a “woomph”, but my partner has a lot more experience than I do and he/she doesn’t seem to be concerned.”
Two days of Northeast winds averaging 30-40 mph have loaded South and Western slopes and fresh wind slabs up to 2’ thick could be easy to trigger on leeward features. If a wind slab is triggered it could be enough force to initiate the larger problem described above. This will be an additional reason to avoid steep terrain.
If temperatures reach the mid 40’s F as forecasted for today, wet point-release avalanches on sun-exposed slopes are possible. They will likely be seen on steep Eastern aspects first and then on Southern aspects as the Sun moves throughout the day.
There is currently a lot of water draining through the snow pack at mid elevations and temperatures could be warm enough to start meling the newly formed surface crust. It is possible that a small point release from the Alpine could pick up enough volume and momentum to entrain wet snow at this elevation band. Today might be a good to day to avoid places like Seattle Ridge where access into and out of the Alpine is on a steep Eastern slope.
Yesterday large puddles and flowing water were observed near the road along the Seward Hwy in Turnagain Pass.
Yesterday we received 0.7 € of water in Turnagain Pass. Rain/snow line was near 1500′ and temperatures below this elevation averaged in the mid 30’s F. At higher elevations temps were in the mid to high 20’s F and snow accumulation was likely around 7 €. Winds were 30-40mph from the Northeast along ridgetops.
Overnight skies cleared and no new precipitation fell. Temperatures dipped into the low 30’s F at mid elevations and NE winds were 15-20 mph.
Today will be mostly sunny and day-time temperatures could reach the mid 40’s F. Ridgetop winds will be 5-15 mph from the East and no new precipitation is expected today.
Tomorrow there is a chance for rain showers at lower elevations. Temperatures are expected to remain warm, high 30’s to mid 40’s near sea level. This could mean snow in the upper elevations, but not much accumulation is expected. Winds will be light to moderate from the East along ridgetops.
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||33||0||.7||56|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||34||0||.1||12|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||34||0||.22||35|
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||27||NW||18||50|
|01/16/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Trees||A Schauer Forecaster|
|01/15/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster|
|01/13/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster|
|01/13/21||Turnagain||Observation: Center Ridge Meadows||Alaska Avalanche School Rec Level 1 Roberts|
|01/12/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge/Center Ridge||A Schauer Forecaster|
|01/11/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan Trees||Schauer/ Roberts Forecaster|
|01/10/21||Turnagain||Observation: Center Ridge Meadows||Alaska Avalanche School Pro 1 Course Latosuo|
|01/10/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan trees||Anonymous|
|01/09/21||Turnagain||Observation: Johnson Pass||Anonymous|
|01/08/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst meadow between Hemlocks||Anonymous|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.