|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
Triggering a slab 2’ thick is becoming more difficult and less likely with time. In the last few days snowpack observations have revealed a weak layer of buried facets to be thinner and less reactive. The slab sitting on this weak layer also seems to be settling out and is not as thick and strong as it was a week ago in many places.
With that said propagation potential does still exist and triggering a slab avalanche is possible on slopes steeper than 35°. This problem will be more likely on Southern aspects where a sun crust/facet combo can been found. There is also elevated concern in the 2600-3000’ elevation band where this facet layer is sitting on top of a stout crust.
Triggering a slab will be more likely in these specific places. Avoid thin areas around rocks or steep rollovers on well-connected slopes steeper than 35°. Obvious clues such as collapsing/woomphing may not be present. A larger trigger, such as several people on a slope, may be just enough to initiate a slab in motion. Be sure to practice safe travel habits. Identify safe spots, move between islands of safety one at a time, and always have an escape zone in mind.
In areas such as Girdwood and above 4000’ in Turnagain Pass more uncertainty exists due to lack of information about these zones.
Moderate winds have eroded many ridgetops back to the “anti-tracks” created over two weeks ago making it easier to stay off of the slab in the Alpine.
Today Northeast winds are expected to increase to 20-35 mph this afternoon along ridgetops. Only a trace of new snow is expected this afternoon and there is currently not a lot of snow available for transport. If winds increase as forecasted small pockets of isolated wind slabs, 4-6” are possible on leeward terrain features.
Yesterday a dense valley fog remained along Turnagain Arm, but in Turnagain Pass skies were clear and sunny. Temperatures were in the 20’s F in the morning and reached the high 30’s F in the afternoon along ridgetops. Light winds 5-10mph from the Southwest kept surface snow conditions cool throughout the day.
Temperatures remained warm overnight, in the low 30’s F along ridgetops. Winds were light, averaging 10-20 mph from the East. No new precipitation was recorded in the last 24 hours.
A trace of new snow is expected this afternoon at higher elevations and light rain at sea level. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 30’s F. Ridgetop winds from the North will be in the 20-35mph range. This evening precipitation and winds are expected to increase. Winds could be as high as 45 mph along ridgetops with up to 5 € of snow at higher elevations. Rain/snow line will be around 1000′.
Winds look to be backing off by late evening. Tomorrow more of the same is expected. Warm temps in the 30’s F with rain at sea level and up to a few inches of snow at higer elevations.
|Temp Avg (F)
|Snow Depth (in)
|Center Ridge (1880′)
|Summit Lake (1400′)
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)
|Temp Avg (F)
|Wind Avg (mph)
|Wind Gust (mph)
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin
|Observation: Lynx creek
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Moderow / Clayton
|Observation: Turnagain (below the uptrack)
|Alaska Avalanche School Moto Level 2
|John Sykes Forecaster
|Observation: Tincan Backdoor, Center Ridge
|AAS Level 1 / R Sullivan
|Avalanche: Tincan Trees
|Schauer/ Moderow/ Stephenson Forecaster