Thu, February 05, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Thu, February 5th, 2015

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

No Rating (0)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		No Rating (0)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

This persistent high pressure weather pattern is reminiscent of the in-laws that have stayed past their welcome. Sure everybody loves sunshine and mild temps for a few days or even a week, but we yearn for a change in house guests eventually. I think that most can agree that we are ready for rowdy Old Man winter to come and “crash the couch” for a bit this month!

In the meantime this high pressure is allowing the brave and adventurous among us to venture through the Forest, past the Alder-wall and high into the Alpine. For those that make it, rewards have come in the form of generally stable snow and soft surface conditions. That being said, pockets of instabilities may exist in the form of shallow wind slabs and loose snow avalanches.

Wind Slabs:

Shallow wind slabs have been found littered throughout the advisory area in the mid and upper elevations. As most of the surface is quite soft (comprised of near surface facets or ‘loud powder’) these wind slabs are fairly easy to identify by feel as the surface below your skis will feel stiff or hollow. These older wind slabs are very likely to be small (<6”) and manageable if initiated.

Winds are expected to pick up today and intensify tomorrow and into the weekend creating more widespread (though still shallow) wind slabs and some bitterly cold wind chills.

Loose Snow Avalanches:

We’ve had yet another day of weather that has aided in loosening and faceting the snow surface. Sluffs on steep terrain, > 40 degrees is low in volume but fast moving. Anticipate this, manage it accordingly and it shouldn’t prove much of an issue today.

Loose snow sluffs are fast moving but managable. photo: Wendy Wagner

Weather

Thu, February 5th, 2015

Calm, cool and clear describe yesterday’s weather in the Turnagain pass area. Inverted temperatures continued with single digits at the highway and low 20’s at ridgetops yesterday. Winds were light out of the west and as soon as you began climbing the Seward highway into Turnagain pass, the low-level fog parked in the Arm was a distant memory with blue sky abound above about 300′.

The potential game-changer today and into the weekend will be the onset of moderate northerly winds starting out calm this morning and increasing into the low 20’s by this afternoon/ evening. These winds are fueled by a tightening pressure gradient between a low in the Gulf and the dominant high pressure over mainland Alaska. Any wind today should act to scour out a mild temperature inversion and low level fog by this evening. Temps are expected to be reach the mid-20’s by this afternoon under clear skies.

Cold, clear and windy looks to continue through the weekend as dry offshore flow continues to dominate southcentral Alaska at least through Sunday morning. Expect wind chill values to be well below zero by tomorrow. The National Weather Service is hinting at a pattern change by mid-week next week as the Bering High moves west into Russia promoting southern flow and an increased chance of precipitation.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	18	0	0	31
Summit Lake (1400′)	7	0	0	7
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	19	0	0	20

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	20	W	6	12
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	18	Var.	3	11

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.