Mon, January 26, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, January 26th, 2015

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

Spring like conditions exist in the higher elevations. With a lack of concerning weak layers in the snowpack comes a very low likelihood of triggering anything other than very shallow loose snow avalanches today.

Loose Snow Avalanches

Yesterday my partner and I were able to get the 2” of surface snow moving in terrain over 40 degrees. Volume of these sluffs were very low and moved at medium speed. This made sluff management simple. It is worth paying attention to your sluff if venturing onto large sustained slopes containing steep rollovers and gullies. This surface snow will become more loose over the next several days of clear and cold weather. As such, it will become easier to trigger this thin layer as we move through the week.

Weak surface snow released naturally in steep terrain on Magnum ridge yesterday. Photo: Fitzgerald

Loosies

Glide Avalanches

Glide cracks are scattered throughout the forecast area. Glides exist on all aspects between 2,000′-3,000′. We continue to monitor and track areas with glide cracks. No new movement or releases were noted yesterday. Minimize your time under glide cracks, as they can release without the normal warning signs.

As mentioned above, early season conditions between road level and 2,500’ exist. Slick crusts, especially in well traveled areas are veiled with a dusting of low density snow. Rocks and stumps may be lurking just below the surface. On the bright side most small creeks and water sources have frozen over with the recent cold temps. Take your time moving through these areas today.

Weather

Mon, January 26th, 2015

As high pressure has established itself over a large portion of the state, temperatures have dropped. Ridgetop stations have averaged in the single digits F over the past 24 hours. Winds have been light out of the North. No new precipitation has fallen.

Today expect similar conditions, with clear, cold and calm being the theme for the day. Ridgetop temperatures will remain in the single digits F and winds will be very light out of the North.

The extended outlook is showing a continuation of this pattern until at least Thursday. Low pressure systems from the South and West will attempt to push up into the region later in the week.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	3	0	0	31
Summit Lake (1400′)	-4	0	0	7
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	4	0	0	23

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	0	WNW	7	18
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	0	VAR	6	26

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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