Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Another day of warm temps and steady rain continues to test our snowpack and our patience. Expect to put skis on at the snow line, around 1,500’ or higher.  Once on the snow, the primary avalanche concern will come in the form of wet loose avalanches as the pack at these lower elevations is quite saturated and lacks structure.  Several days of rain now has seasoned this elevation band and any wet loose avalanches should be a predictable problem encountered on steep (>35 degree) slopes.  Anticipate these wet loose avalanches and avoid terrain traps if you choose to continue ascending toward higher elevations and winter!  With increased elevation today through the rain zone, the potential exists to trigger a larger, wet (cohesive) slab avalanche where we have more structure in our snowpack.  I’d expect this to be more of an issue in the 2,500 – 3,500’ zone.

If you are still climbing and have hit the 3,500’ mark you’ll likely be very wet at this point.  We have very little info from upper elevations since this most recent storm hit.  What we do know is that 4 days ago there was a very supportable surface crust prior to 3”+ of water (estimated 30 – 40” of snow above 3500’) and high winds (40 – 80 mph from the East on Sunburst).  We lack info at this point to understand how well new snow is bonding to the pre-existing surface but expect to encounter fresh, potentially sensitive wind slabs on leeward slopes in the 3 – 5’ range above 4,000’.  It’ll be important to pay attention to any red flags (recent avalanches, cracking or whumphing), conduct your own stability assessment and exercise caution and conservative decision-making if travelling in the highest reaches of the forecast area today.  Dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to exist as we are still within an active weather pattern.

Glide avalanches have been active across the Turnagain zone in steep terrain below 3,000’ since last weekend.  These have been observed littered across the eastern face of Seattle ridge, Eddies (including the final steep pitch on the SW Face), and Corn Biscuit.  Glide avalanches are impossible to predict when they may release so it’s best to simply avoid your exposure to any glide cracks as much as possible.  In channeled terrain, such as below Seattle ridge debris has been observed running out to as low as about 1,200’ (well below the ‘snow-line’).