Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, December 6th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, December 7th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW today in the alpine and treeline elevations.   Very shallow isolated pockets of wind slab, no greater than 6 € deep, could be encountered on very steep terrain features on leeward slopes today.

Below treeline a shallow snowpack combined with the potential for rain below 1,000′ does not warrant a danger rating for today.

Early season hazards such as rocks, stumps, and older glide cracks require cautious travel, especially at and below treeline.

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Sat, December 6th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Over the past few weeks our field work has shown us that we do not have any persistent weak layers within the snowpack.  What this boils down to is the fact that any instability that you might encounter on a given day will be short lived.  This holds true today, as both precipitation and wind will not be enough to create new instability.

With that said, it is still important to pay attention to areas, mainly in the higher elevations, where winds could transport snow to create small isolated pockets of unstable snow.  Yesterday we found mostly stable snow in these suspect areas, with newly formed wind slabs averaging 4-6” in depth in upper elevation starting zones.  Slopes over 40 degrees in steepness with newly formed wind slabs will be the most likely place to find unstable snow today.  Pay attention in this type of terrain and do not assume that LOW danger is the same as ‘no’ danger.

Weather
Sat, December 6th, 2014

A well organized Low pressure system currently centered over the West end of the Aleutians will draw warm moist air up from the South as it moves towards the area.   As a result we should expect to see temperatures warming slightly today and through the weekend.  

Precipitation will be light today, with the rain/snow line hovering around 1,000′ and 1-2 € of new snow possible above 1,000′.   Ridge top winds will be out of the East at 5-15mph.   Temps at 1,000′ will be in the mid 30sF and ridge tops should see the thermometer approaching 30F.

Expect winds to increase heading into the evening hours through Sunday and temperatures to rise as a complex Low moves through the area.   We should see additional precipitation in the form of rain at sea level and snow in the higher elevations through the weekend.   The general pattern looks to remain unsettled and active for the next several days.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 32  0  0 20
Summit Lake (1400′) 30  0  0 5
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 31  0  .02 18

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)  25  E  17 52
Seattle Ridge (2400′)  27  N  14 37
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Riding Areas
Updated Thu, April 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.