Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Field observations and a lack of avalanche activity over the last several days have given us increased confidence in a strengthening snowpack.  With only modest amounts of new snow showing up precipitation hasn’t been a huge factor in increasing avalanche danger, allowing the snowpack to adjust accordingly, a couple inches at a time.  The most concerning interface in our snowpack at this point is the Nov. 18^th rain crust (below ~3,500’).  This can be easily found through pole probing, hand pits or digging a full pit. Recent test results are showing signs of good strength and bonding to this layer.

Winds have been moderate at ridge top locations gusting up to the low 40’s from the north and east.  Caution will be warranted today on steep, leeward slopes at these higher elevations where a shallow wind slab (up to 12” deep) could be found.  Approach this terrain carefully; looking, listening and feeling for a wind slab prior to committing to a slope.

At mid elevations between 1,000 and 2,000 feet the surface snow is moist and somewhat gloppy.  With temperatures on the rise today, any rain we may see in this elevation band could spike the danger for small, wet loose sluffs.  In steep terrain these have the potential to entrain a significant amount of snow.  Fortunately, as of 6am this morning forecasted precipitation appears to be minimal for the eastern Turnagain arm zone.

                                A quick snapshot of depth and structure of our snowpack on the motorized side of Turnagain pass.