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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Thu, October 23rd, 2014 - 7:00AM
Fri, October 24th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

With a foot of snow falling on Turnagain Pass Monday, ski and snowmachine movies debuting and other early season events, winter must be on its way!!  And, we may even see a few more inches of snow this weekend.

Upcoming Events:

November 7th:    Southcentral Alaska Avalanche Workshop. A gathering of snow professionals for a day of learning, presentation, discussion and networking. All are welcome! See  akavalancheworkshop.org  for more details.

November 8th – 10th:    Alaska Winter Weather Forecasting Course. An  amazing, and intense, mountain weather course taught by a former Alaska avalanche forecaster and current mountain meteorologist Jim Woodmencey!    http://alaskaavalanche.com/  

November 13th:    Woohoo! Join the Friends of the CNFAIC and forecasters for our  6th Annual CNFAIC Fundraiser  featuring Luc Mehl! Details  HERE.

November 18th:  FREE  Avalanche Awareness talk at REI  – 6:00-7:30pm

November 20th:    Winter Project World Premiere!!  

Avalanche Center Update:  

We are currently gearing up for the season and in the midst of a couple staffing changes. We will be hiring one forecaster soon to join Graham Predeger, Wendy Wagner and John Fitzgerald. Kevin Wright, the former Director, has moved on to greener pastures and he will be missed!

We will be posting intermittent updates during the first half of November. In mid-November we will start issuing advisories.

**For those of you entertaining the early season conditions: We are in need of your observations, photos and/or videos!! How much snow are you finding and where (no need to give up your secret spot €“ general locations work too). How is the snow; soft, crusty, wind distributed? Please help us begin to map out our snowpack and submit an observation. You can do that  HERE  or by clicking the €˜submit an observation’ tab on the menu bar.

Early Season Reminders:

Now is THE time to start checking your avalanche RESCUE gear.  

  • Do you have fresh batteries for your beacon? Are the battery terminals clean or corroded?
  • Is the cable in your probe still strong or is it frayed and ready to break upon assembly?
  • Is your shovel solid? (Last season, after 9 years, my tried-and-true shovel finally began to weaken and bend where the handle meets the blade €¦no good.)
  • Air bag? Is it assembled properly and your canister filled?
  • Last but not least, do you have a plan for practicing with your gear? Take some time away from battling alders and rocks and bury a few beacons for your friends (aka potential lifesaving partners)!!

What’s going on with the weather?

General weather:  HERE  
Developmental Eastern Turnagain Arm Forecast:  HERE  (Bookmark this page if you have not done so already)
What it looks like up at Turnagain Pass:  AKDOT’s webcams!
Treeline snow depth on Center Ridge:    SNOTEL site  (as of Friday Oct. 24th there is 6 inches of settled snow from Oct. 20th’s 12 inches).


Thu, October 23rd, 2014
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
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1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
12/06/23 Turnagain Observation: Eddies
12/05/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
12/04/23 Turnagain Observation: Lynx Creek
12/04/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst, 2400′ – 3100′ NW ridge common uptrack.
12/03/23 Turnagain Observation: Center Ridge
12/03/23 Turnagain Observation: Magnum
12/03/23 Turnagain Observation: West ridge of Tincan Peak and Peak 4400
12/03/23 Turnagain Observation: Lipps
12/02/23 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge
12/02/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan South Side
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.