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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Tue, April 29th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Wed, April 30th, 2014 - 7:00AM
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

We are no longer issuing daily avalanche advisories for 2013/14; however, this does not mean that the avalanche season has ended – see below for some SPRINGTIME TIPS and SEASON SUMMARY.

We would like send out a HUGE THANK YOU to all of you who have submitted observations this year.   They are invaluable to us, and help provide more accurate information for everyone.   All of us at the forecast center have remarked on the increase in the quality of observations coming in from the public.   Thank you and please keep them coming!

Additionally, THANK YOU to all of you who have supported the CNFAIC through donations and a variety of other means. This is the foundation we continue to build upon. ۬ ۬

We would also like to thank the Friends of the CNFAIC. We would NOT be here without their support and hard work РTHANK YOU! This amazing and selfless group has a tireless passion for keeping all of us safe in the backcountry. ۬ ۬

Last but far from least, we would like to thank the following for sharing the valuable avalanche information that helps to greatly improve our forecasts: ۬

-Alaska DOT

۬-Alyeska Ski Patrol

۬-Chugach Powder Guides ۬

-Alaska Railroad ۬

-Alaska Avalanche School ۬

-Alaska Pacific University

-Everyone else who has contributed this season

Tue, April 29th, 2014
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Announcement

SPRINGTIME AVALANCHE TIPS – Timing is everything
While many folks have already transitioned to summertime activities, there is still plenty of snow in the mountains.  On any given day conditions can range from warm and sunny t-shirt weather to cold & snowy mid winter conditions.  Being able to recognize and respond to specific avalanche concerns is key in making effective decisions in avalanche terrain.

Storm Snow & Wind Slabs

It is still possible to get significant snowfall this time of year.  Pay attention to how much new snow has fallen and what surface it is sitting on.  Is there a foot of new snow sitting on a crust?  Even without a persistent weak layer between the slab and the bed surface, it is still possible to trigger dangerous slab avalanches.  You can track new snowfall amounts by visiting the Turnagain Pass SNOTEL site.  Ridgetop stations will allow you to figure out wind direction and speed.  Knowledge of precipitation, wind and temperature data will give you a head start on your assessment before you even leave the house.

Loose Snow Avalanches

Both dry and wet loose avalanches are common springtime avalanche concerns.  Pay close attention in steep terrain, especially when the sun first hits freshly fallen snow.


We have yet to see any significant cornice falls this season.  Many slopes have large cornices looming above them.  Knowing exactly what will tip the scales is difficult.  Some factors that contribute to cornice fall are sun, heat, and new snow with wind.  Give cornices a wide berth and take measures to minimize your exposure to them.

Wet Avalanches

wet slab
Wet slab avalanches are also a possibility this time of year.  A combination of a slab, weak layer and water percolating into the weak layer is what is needed for this type of avalanche to occur.  This combination will be possible in the higher elevations or after a storm deposits a new slab and rain or sun sends water down into the snowpack.


Below are some ways to both anticipate and deal with the above mentioned avalanche concerns:

    •    Watch for the “shed cycle” in the higher elevations. One great way is to keep an eye on the ridgetop weather stations (click HERE). Avalanche activity often follows multiple consecutive days (usually 3) of above freezing overnight temperatures.  Careful route planning to stay out from under slopes with wet and rotten snow is essential during this period.  This process has already taken place in the lower to mid elevations and is now confined to upper elevation terrain.

    •    Once the snow has undergone the transition to a summertime pack and is freezing at night and warming during the day (the corn season), hitting the slopes early and getting off them when they become too sloppy is critical.

    •    Damp or wet snow more than 6″ deep is a sign that it’s time to exit the area. Following the aspects as the sun heats up the slopes over the course of the day, East to South then West, can make for great riding/skiing days ending in sunny tailgating.

    •    Keep in mind, cloud cover ‘holds in the heat’ and can dramatically limit overnight refreezing.  A shallow to no refreeze will not only give daytime heating a jump start on weakening the pack, but can produce less than stellar riding conditions.

    •    Beware of warm storms where rain is falling on snow, especially when rain is falling on cold dry snow. This can quickly increase the avalanche danger. €¨

    •    Stay off of CORNICES.  When approaching from the side or above, make sure you can see where the cornice ends and the underlying terrain begins.  If you can’t see that transition area, move away from the edge.  If you find you and your group below cornices, expose only one person at a time and move efficiently through those areas.

    •    Lastly, don’t forget to plan your route back to the car. Does it take you under slopes that were frozen and safe earlier in the day, but now have been cooking in the sun waiting to slide on your return?

Additional Concern
  • Announcement

Watch out for bears!

Tue, April 29th, 2014

SEASON ROUND UP: The Winter that Almost Was…

For anyone that ventured into the mountains this winter, it is no surprise that we hovered between 50 and 60% of our average snowpack for most of the season. The fact that the alders never laid down can attest to that. Accumulated precipitation, on the other hand, was typically in the 80-90 percentile thanks to significant rain up to, and over, 2,000′ during October and late January.  

We had two significant thawing events mid-season: one in late January just mentioned (which subsequently melted out much of the pack and induced a very large spring-like shed cycle) and one smaller event in late February. After each of these, winter tried to return and we ended up with three Parts to our winter season. Part I was in December, before the January thaw. Part II in February, after a few cold storms deposited 2-3′ of snow on top of the then frozen snowpack from January. And last, but many would say the best, Winter Part III in March. This third period began with a 5 day storm dropping 5′ of snow followed by a 3+week high pressure. Steep lines were finally being ridden and snow stability was good. These Marvelous March days were quite welcome considering the previous two Parts were plagued with persistent and deep slab avalanche problems, including many close calls and remotely triggered avalanches.

Check out these avalanche maps Katie Johnston, 2014 intern, produced for the January, February and March cycles!
You can also find our detaliled Monthly Weather Charts on the Weather History link.


Above treeline: High – 11 days, Considerable – 41 days, Moderate – 47 days, Low – 41 days
Below  treeline: High – 10 days, Considerable – 15 days, Moderate – 53 days, Low – 67 days

Below is NRCS’s graph of the current year’s Precipitation and SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) compared to the average.  

Don’t be scared off by this overwhelming looking graph!! It’s the past 10 years of snow depth on the Pass. Interesting to compare years.

January average temperature beginning 1985 (1880′ elevation) – Tied for 3rd this year

Turnagain Pass’s Center Ridge SNOTEL site on November 6th – No snow…

Remember, for current weather see the  CNFAIC weather page.

Have an excellent summer and Thank You for tuning in!

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.