Thu, April 24, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Thu, April 24th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The snowpack continues to melt slowly each day. Night-time temperatures are the key right now, with below freezing temps allowing the snowpack to maintain a little bit of strength. This strength will be lost (and avalanche danger may increase significantly) if we get nights without freezing temperatures. For today, we don’t expect a significant change from conditions over the last week.

Wet loose avalanches have been noted in our zone recently. The West face of Pyramid peak had a couple of lobes of wet loose snow travel the full length of the face sometime in the last 2 days. This kind of avalanche activity is very unlikely in the morning when temperatures are colder, and increases in probability as the day gets warmer and the snow gets softer.

Cornice fall will also become more dangerous late in the day as warming increases the possibility for spontaneous or human triggered cornices.

The snowpack is very close to an “isothermal” state. This is the point where all layers in the snowpack are the same temperature – 32 degrees. Clues we monitor to gage the strength of the snowpack at this point include – natural avalanche activity, boot or ski penetration, “wetness” of the snowpack, and free water being released from the snowpack. If these factors get significantly worse, then the backcountry could become dangerous.

Weather

Thu, April 24th, 2014

With no precipitation to speak of in several days, temperature is the most significant meteorological factor. At mid elevations, temperatures are reaching the mid 40s during the peak of the day. Overnight we had cooling down to below freezing.

Low High
Sunburst (3,812′) 25 34.9
Seattle (2,400′) 27.4 34.5
Center Ridge (1,880′) 28.9 48.7

Our recent stretch of sunny and warm days looks to be coming to a close today. Clouds will be moving in this afternoon with a chance of rain over the next few days. Wind will increase tonight, with a Southeast flow to 16-25mph at the ridgetops.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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