Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The snowpack continues to melt slowly each day.  Night-time temperatures are the key right now, with below freezing temps allowing the snowpack to maintain a little bit of strength.  This strength will be lost (and avalanche danger may increase significantly) if we get nights without freezing temperatures.  For today, we don’t expect a significant change from conditions over the last week.  

Wet loose avalanches have been noted in our zone recently.  The West face of Pyramid peak had a couple of lobes of wet loose snow travel the full length of the face sometime in the last 2 days.  This kind of avalanche activity is very unlikely in the morning when temperatures are colder, and increases in probability as the day gets warmer and the snow gets softer.  

Cornice fall will also become more dangerous late in the day as warming increases the possibility for spontaneous or human triggered cornices.  

The snowpack is very close to an “isothermal” state.  This is the point where all layers in the snowpack are the same temperature – 32 degrees.  Clues we monitor to gage the strength of the snowpack at this point include – natural avalanche activity, boot or ski penetration, “wetness” of the snowpack, and free water being released from the snowpack.  If these factors get significantly worse, then the backcountry could become dangerous.