Wed, April 23, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, April 23rd, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The snowpack around the forecast area can be considered “well seasoned”. Multiple days of no precipitation and diurnal melting and freezing have helped to strengthen the snowpack. Despite several nights of mild air temps, the surface has been able to refreeze, mainly due to clear skies. While avalanche activity is unlikely today, as temperatures climb and the sun hits different aspects, it is still worth being on the lookout for the following:

Cornices
These giants are fully matured and sitting above many starting zones. Keep your distance from cornices when approaching from the side or above. Know where the snow begins and the underlying terrain ends. When traveling below cornices, make sure to spread your group out and minimize time spent underneath them.

Wet Loose Avalanches
In terrain over 45 degrees receiving direct sunlight and steep terrain in the lower elevations very low volume human triggered sluffs are possible. Pay attention to any snow moving around you and get out of its way by either stopping above it or turning away from it. It should be noted that North aspects are beginning to receive direct sun, so all aspects hold this potential.

Weather

Wed, April 23rd, 2014

Clear skies overnight have allowed for freezing to occur on the surface. Temps (F) in the past 24 hours:

avg. max.
Sunburst (3,812′) 37 42.3
Seattle (2,400′) 37 43.7
Center Ridge (1,880′) 42 52.4

Ridgetop winds have been light and variable. No new precipitation has fallen.

Today expect another sunny day with occasional cloud cover. Temperatures at 1,000′ will again climb into the mid 40s F. Winds will be out of the Southeast at 5-10 mph.

The extended outlook is showing a continuation of generally mild and sunny weather through the end of the week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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