Sat, April 19, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, April 19th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

Dissipating cloud cover and cooler overnight temps have allowed the snow surface to once again refreeze. The snowpack has now been through many periods of melt/freeze. This equates to generally stable snow in most areas. The exceptions to this are the following:

Wet Loose Avalanches
It will be possible for humans to trigger very low volume wet sluffs in very steep terrain today. Slopes over 40 degrees either in the lower elevations or on sunlit aspects in the higher elevations are the main areas where this is a possibility. The volume of any potential sluffs will be low and slow moving.

Cornices
We have yet to see any significant cornice falls in the area. Despite this, it is still worth being aware of and staying away from them. Know where your are in relation to cornices and always hedge your bets by giving them a wide berth. Warm temperatures and sunshine will help to destabilize cornices today.

With temperatures expected to reach into the high 40s/low 50s F at 1,000′, it will be important to anticipate the snow surface becoming unsupportable in the lower elevations later in the day. Planning your route back to the road with this in mind will minimize the potential of injury due to difficult travel.

Weather

Sat, April 19th, 2014

In the past 24 hours a trace of new snow has fallen above 2,000′, with light rain (.1″) below 2,000′. Ridgetop winds have averaged 13 mph out of the East (max gust of 35 mph). Temperatures have been mild with the Sunburst station (3,812′) showing an average of 24.7 degrees F. The Center Ridge SNOTEL site (1,880′) showed a max reading of 44 F.

Today expect clearing skies through the morning hours. Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach into the high 40s F. Winds will be light out of the Northeast at 5 mph.

A series of disturbances tracking to the South will not be strong enough to bring moisture our way for the next several days. High pressure will try to establish itself over the area, bringing generally dry conditions and mild temps through the weekend and into the early part of next week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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