Turnagain Pass
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There is a generally LOW avalanche danger today both above and below treeline. Although triggering an avalanche is unlikely in our well seasoned spring-time snowpack, cornice failures, wet loose avalanches in very steep terrain and shallow wind slabs above 3,000′ in elevation should remain on the radar.
Avalanche advisories will be issued 5 days per week – Wednesday through Sunday – until April 27th.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
With overnight temperatures cooling along with a slight increase in Easterly wind, the soft and saturated surface from yesterday has likely undergone a superficial re-freeze. This will mainly be the case above treeline while below treeline increased cloud cover is expected to have kept the surface wet and unsupportable. In general, the snowpack has been through many melt/freeze cycles and has seasoned to our warm spring-time temperatures. We have yet to see any significant wet avalanche activity, but we also have yet to see an extended significant day/night warm up. For anyone traveling in the mountains today, the two main avalanche concerns to keep in mind are:
Wet loose point release avalanches:
In very steep terrain (40+ degrees) wet loose snow sluffs will be possible to initiate where the surface has melted, lost its strength and is composed of several inches or more of wet and sloppy snow.
Wind slabs (above 3,000′):
Though the wind is forecast to blow in the 15-25mph range from the East, there is a lack of dry snow available for transport. The exception will be at the highest elevations – above 3,000′ – where shallow winds slabs may form with any new snow today (1-2″ forecast) or preexisting snow soft enough to be drifted.
Cornice failure:
Many cornices are still hanging on to the Ridgelines. Though there has been little in way of cornice falls this season, they are nothing to mess with and continuing to steer clear of these on the ridgelines as well as from below is prudent.
Photo below – cornices along the Seattle Ridgeline.
Yesterday we saw a return to mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. The Center Ridge SNOTEL at 1880‘ got as warm as 50F yesterday while 24-hour ridgetop temperatures averaged near 30F. Winds were light and variable. Cumulus clouds were bubbling up over Pastoral Peak – a sure sign of spring.
Today, mostly cloudy skies and wet conditions have moved back in associated with a series of disturbances along North Prince William Sound. Scattered showers bringing .1-.2″ of rain is forecast below 1,000′ and 1-2″ of wet snow above. Temperatures will rise to near 40F at 1,000′ and 30F on the Ridges. Ridgetop winds are expected to be between 15-25mph from the East.
The weak systems over us today will move out and sunny skies are in store for the weekend as a brief high pressure builds in above the large low pressure sitting to our South. Early next week models are showing a return to cloudy, warm and drizzly conditions.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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