Mon, April 07, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, April 7th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wet Loose

Wet Loose

Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

More info at Avalanche.org

Over the weekend North aspects saw some natural activity in the form of wet loose snow avalanches. Surface snow that had become weak during the long dry spell of mid to late March heated up for the first time from a combination of mild temps and cloud cover. While this activity is on the decline there is still a slight chance for this to occur. This is a potential issue that exists in isolated pockets, primarily on higher elevation North facing slopes. The surface snow on all other aspects is currently either damp or refrozen. A cooling trend in temps overnight have helped to solidify the surface snow. Today the mercury will climb back into the low 40s F at 1,000’. While this will weaken the snow on the surface, the effects will be minimal. Be on the lookout for very low volume wet loose avalanches on very steep lower elevation slopes in addition to steep North facing higher elevation terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2

Cornice

Cornice

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

More info at Avalanche.org

Cornices have grown mature throughout the season. Many higher elevation slopes have these giants looming above them. Warming temps combined with direct sunlight will help to destabilize these features. Keep your distance from cornices today. They are unpredictable and deserve your respect.

Weather

Mon, April 7th, 2014

In the past 24 hours a trace of new snow has fallen above 2,000′. Ridge top temperatures averaged in the low to mid 20s F. The Center Ridge SNOTEL station at 1,880′ averaged in the low 30s F with a max reading of 41 degrees. Winds have been light with the Sunburst station averaging 5 mph out of the East, with a max gust of 18 mph.

Today expect cloudy skies with occasional clearing. Very light intermittent snow and rain showers can be expected with rain/snow line hovering around 1,000′. Winds will pick up into the 15-20 mph range out of the Northwest. Temperatures at 1,000′ will climb back up into the low 40s F.

A chance for continued light snow and rain will continue through Tuesday. By midweek a ridge of High pressure will develop over the area bringing with it sunshine and mild temperatures.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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