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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Tue, February 4th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Wed, February 5th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The majority of terrain in our forecast zone continues to have a LOW avalanche danger. The exception is the elevation band above 3-3,500′ where dry snow exists. At this uppermost elevation there is a MODERATE danger for triggering a deep slab avalanche, wind slab or potentially a shallower slab sitting on faceted snow 1-2′ deep.

Below the 3-3,500′ elevation band where the danger is LOW a very hard crust is present creating slippery slide-for-life conditions.

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Tue, February 4th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Deep Persistent Slabs
    Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Though the majority of terrain in our forecast zone is below 3,500′ and frozen solid as a rock, there are areas, like Pastoral Peak, that are high enough to have dry snow. At these locations there is an old weak layer of facets (the November snow) buried 3-6+’ deep. Although this layer is buried fairly deep and has had a week or more to adjust to the load placed on it during January, it is still there and therefore a concern. If someone finds just the right thin spot and a deep slab is triggered it could produce a large and destructive avalanche. The likelihood for this is low but the consequences can be high. 

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wind Slabs
    Wind Slabs
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
More info at Avalanche.org

Keep an eye out for old and stiff wind slabs at the high elevations and peaks. Though the wind has picked up a bit during the past 24-hours to the 10-15mph range with gusts into the 30’s there is little snow to transport. However, as with any travel in exposed areas with dry snow, finding a wind slab can be possible.

Additional Concern
  • Announcement
    Announcement

Another concern that may be developing at the very upper elevations in the dry snow (above 3,500′) is faceting surrounding one or more crusts. This is in the top 1-2 feet of the snowpack. During the tail end of our wet January weather (Jan 26-28) the rain/snow line fluctuated around 4,000′ and we know there is at least one crust that was formed up to 4,500+’. This is 6-8″ below the surface and was seen on January 30th – more details can be found HERE. With almost a week now of clear and cool weather I wouldn’t be surprised to find facets developing around the crust. If this is the case, triggering a slab avalanche breaking in a weak layer near a crust could be possible. This is something to think about and look for if you are venturing to the uppermost elevations.

If anyone does head up to these areas, we want to know what you are seeing – send us an observation!

Weather
Tue, February 4th, 2014

During the past 24-hours we have seen mainly overcast skies and mild temperatures. Ridgetop temperatures have averaged in the low 20’s F and the mid 30’s at sea level. Ridgetop winds have been mainly from the East with averages in the 10-15mph range with gusts to 30mph.

Today we should see cloud cover begin to clear and possibly some sunshine. Temperatures look to drop a hair today with highs around 20F on the ridges and 30F at sea level. Ridgetop winds should remain in the 10-15mph range from the Southeast.

Looking to the latter part of the week we have a chance for a few flurries to a few inches of snow on Thursday night into Friday. This is associated with a small system developing over PWS. Along with the potential snow, winds will be increasing and we will return to our blocking high pressure for the weekend. The NWS has posted a Special Weather Statement – though you may not want to read it…

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Riding Areas
Updated Thu, April 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.