Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Though the majority of terrain in our forecast zone is below 3,500′ and frozen solid as a rock, there are areas, like Pastoral Peak, that are high enough to have dry snow. At these locations there is an old weak layer of facets (the November snow) buried 3-6+’ deep. Although this layer is buried fairly deep and has had a week or more to adjust to the load placed on it during January, it is still there and therefore a concern. If someone finds just the right thin spot and a deep slab is triggered it could produce a large and destructive avalanche. The likelihood for this is low but the consequences can be high. 

Keep an eye out for old and stiff wind slabs at the high elevations and peaks. Though the wind has picked up a bit during the past 24-hours to the 10-15mph range with gusts into the 30’s there is little snow to transport. However, as with any travel in exposed areas with dry snow, finding a wind slab can be possible.

Another concern that may be developing at the very upper elevations in the dry snow (above 3,500′) is faceting surrounding one or more crusts. This is in the top 1-2 feet of the snowpack. During the tail end of our wet January weather (Jan 26-28) the rain/snow line fluctuated around 4,000′ and we know there is at least one crust that was formed up to 4,500+’. This is 6-8″ below the surface and was seen on January 30th – more details can be found HERE. With almost a week now of clear and cool weather I wouldn’t be surprised to find facets developing around the crust. If this is the case, triggering a slab avalanche breaking in a weak layer near a crust could be possible. This is something to think about and look for if you are venturing to the uppermost elevations.

If anyone does head up to these areas, we want to know what you are seeing – send us an observation!