Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The unusually warm and wet weather of late January has given way to a period of cooling.  This gradual cooling has allowed the once saturated snowpack to “lock up” in many locations.  The end result is a stout crust on the surface.  This crust is now over 2 feet thick in places and can support a tremendous amount of weight.  Because of this, it will be very difficult to trigger an avalanche in all but the highest elevations of the forecast zone.

In steep upper elevation starting zones above 3,000’, the possibility still remains for triggering a deep, dangerous slab.  Weak snow near the ground still exists.  This weak snow is now covered with slabs up to 6’ in depth.  The likelihood of triggering one of these slabs is low today.  However, if you were to trigger one of these slabs the end result would be a high volume avalanche that would be unsurvivable.  

This is a difficult avalanche problem to assess.  The easiest way to deal with this problem is to avoid steep terrain in the upper elevations.  Avoiding steep rollovers & thin spots in the slab will also minimize the possibility of triggering a deep slab avalanche today.

It is also worth paying attention to old wind slabs that formed last week.  These slabs exist in pockets in the higher elevations and will be on the shallow side, less that 10” in depth.  Avoiding these pockets will help to minimize the greater hazard of losing control in steep terrain on a slick, hard crust.  A fall in steep terrain today will be very difficult to arrest, hence the term “slide for life” conditions.