|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
We continue to see new wet avalanche activity. The big new one was on the west face of Cornbiscuit. The lower part of the upper face pulled out full depth sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This area is above treeline but well within the zone that is getting rain. See photo below.
As long as temperatures remain above freezing and especially during active rainfall, wet slab avalanches are possible and can be quite dangerous.
Deep slab continues to be a concern as the upper elevations have stress added. The equation here is simple – known reactive weak layers are getting heavy additional loading day after day. These weak layers can cause large widespread avalanches anywhere from 4-7 feet deep and pull all the snow to the ground. This problem is also worse during periods of precipitation, but will linger even after the storm ends.
Steep upper elevation terrain should be avoided, especially during periods of intense precipitation.
Up in the higher elevations there is enough storm snow and wind loading to have problems in the recent layers. Think about wind slabs and storm slabs 1-3 feet in depth. If an avalanche is started in these layers it could possibly step down into deeper layers. I will be surprised if anybody actually makes it above the rain line today.
A steady jet of moisture is coming from subtropical latitudes, straight north to southcentral Alaska. This pattern is expected to persist through Friday night. According to the National Weather Service, the Eastern Kenai peninsula could get another 3-6 inches of rain through Friday afternoon. Freezing levels will also increase to 4000-6000 feet elevation.
Today looks like the warmest yet. Rain will continue, transitioning to snow around 2400 feet. Wind at the ridge tops – Southeast 28-40 mph.
The first sign of a break from this pattern is on Saturday, with a chance of partly sunny skies.
|12/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||Schauer / Keeler Forecaster|
|12/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan South Side||Anonymous|
|12/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies up track||Luc Mehl|
|12/01/23||Avalanche: Sunburst||John Sykes Forecaster|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddie’s trees||Anonymous|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country||Graham Predeger Forecaster|
|11/30/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Trees||Kakiko Ramos-Leon|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|