Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The first avalanche problem that you will encounter from the trailhead is wet snow.  The freezing line is reaching up to 2000 feet or higher.  Water saturated snow is heavy and weaker than drier snow.  This problem will be found below treeline, in terrain often considered “safer” from avalanche danger.  Read more about Wet Slab Avalanches here.

Photo from January 21st showing low elevation terrain and several natural avalanches on Seattle ridge. Photo by Katie Johnston.

Above treeline we are accumulating significant snowfall through this warm storm cycle.  The weak layers at or near the ground are now buried fairly deep (4-6 feet) and continue to be a problem for large and dangerous avalanches.  

While we continue to have warm temperatures and snowfall, any steep terrain that could produce a dry deep slab avalanche should be avoided.  We have many reports from the last 2 weeks of remotely triggered and natural avalanches on these old weak layers.  The frequency of these events is decreasing, but the size is increasing as the snowpack builds.  

Above 2000 feet we will be getting more snow today.  The National Weather Service is predicting up to a foot of new snow at higher elevations.  With ongoing snowfall we need to wary of unstable storm snow in the top layers of the snowpack.  This will be more pronounced in areas of stiff wind slab.