Mon, January 13, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, January 13th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

2 - Moderate

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

2 - Moderate

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

The bottom of the snowpack around the region is comprised of weak snow. Over the past month snow has built up on top of that weak base. Most of that accumulation has been gradual with the exception of two storms between New Years and Jan 5th. Avalanche activity spiked during and after these two loading events.

We have also seen human triggered activity happening days after precipitation events. This fact speaks to the persistent nature of our problem. The weak snow that is present in the snowpack makes it possible for avalanches to occur well beyond storm events. It has now been 8 days since the snowpack has received a shock to its system.

We have not crossed some magical threshold of avalanche hazard from CONSIDERABLE to MODERATE. Rather, there has been enough time since our last loading event that the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has decreased to the point where it is possible to travel on slopes without incident. However, if one were to trigger an avalanche today, the end result would be bad news. Slab depth ranging between 1-3 feet combined with the potential for slabs to propagate across slopes warrant conservative terrain choices.

Avoiding terrain over 35 degrees, convexities, and areas where the snow becomes shallow is your best bet for eliminating the possibility of triggering an avalanche today.

Weather

Mon, January 13th, 2014

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have picked up 2 € of new snow with .1 € of water. Winds at the Sunburst weather station have picked up overnight out of the West averaging 13 mph with gusts to 33 mph. Ridge top temperatures have averaged 16 degrees F.

Today should bring continued light moisture of up to 2 € of snow by evening. Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph. Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach the low to mid 20s F.

Tonight should bring a better dose of new snow with 10 € possible in the higher elevations.

The weather pattern will remain active in the region over the next several days, with temperatures climbing and more precipitation on the horizon through mid week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/23/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side	Travis SMITH
04/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Bertha Creek	Anonymous
04/20/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Spokane Creek	Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster

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