Mon, January 13, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, January 13th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

The bottom of the snowpack around the region is comprised of weak snow. Over the past month snow has built up on top of that weak base. Most of that accumulation has been gradual with the exception of two storms between New Years and Jan 5th. Avalanche activity spiked during and after these two loading events.

We have also seen human triggered activity happening days after precipitation events. This fact speaks to the persistent nature of our problem. The weak snow that is present in the snowpack makes it possible for avalanches to occur well beyond storm events. It has now been 8 days since the snowpack has received a shock to its system.

We have not crossed some magical threshold of avalanche hazard from CONSIDERABLE to MODERATE. Rather, there has been enough time since our last loading event that the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has decreased to the point where it is possible to travel on slopes without incident. However, if one were to trigger an avalanche today, the end result would be bad news. Slab depth ranging between 1-3 feet combined with the potential for slabs to propagate across slopes warrant conservative terrain choices.

Avoiding terrain over 35 degrees, convexities, and areas where the snow becomes shallow is your best bet for eliminating the possibility of triggering an avalanche today.

Weather

Mon, January 13th, 2014

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have picked up 2 € of new snow with .1 € of water. Winds at the Sunburst weather station have picked up overnight out of the West averaging 13 mph with gusts to 33 mph. Ridge top temperatures have averaged 16 degrees F.

Today should bring continued light moisture of up to 2 € of snow by evening. Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph. Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach the low to mid 20s F.

Tonight should bring a better dose of new snow with 10 € possible in the higher elevations.

The weather pattern will remain active in the region over the next several days, with temperatures climbing and more precipitation on the horizon through mid week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.