The bottom of the snowpack around the region is comprised of weak snow. Over the past month snow has built up on top of that weak base. Most of that accumulation has been gradual with the exception of two storms between New Years and Jan 5th. Avalanche activity spiked during and after these two loading events.
We have also seen human triggered activity happening days after precipitation events. This fact speaks to the persistent nature of our problem. The weak snow that is present in the snowpack makes it possible for avalanches to occur well beyond storm events. It has now been 8 days since the snowpack has received a shock to its system.
We have not crossed some magical threshold of avalanche hazard from CONSIDERABLE to MODERATE. Rather, there has been enough time since our last loading event that the likelihood of triggering an avalanche has decreased to the point where it is possible to travel on slopes without incident. However, if one were to trigger an avalanche today, the end result would be bad news. Slab depth ranging between 1-3 feet combined with the potential for slabs to propagate across slopes warrant conservative terrain choices.
Avoiding terrain over 35 degrees, convexities, and areas where the snow becomes shallow is your best bet for eliminating the possibility of triggering an avalanche today.
In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have picked up 2 € of new snow with .1 € of water. Winds at the Sunburst weather station have picked up overnight out of the West averaging 13 mph with gusts to 33 mph. Ridge top temperatures have averaged 16 degrees F.
Today should bring continued light moisture of up to 2 € of snow by evening. Winds will be out of the South at 10-15 mph. Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach the low to mid 20s F.
Tonight should bring a better dose of new snow with 10 € possible in the higher elevations.
The weather pattern will remain active in the region over the next several days, with temperatures climbing and more precipitation on the horizon through mid week.
|04/19/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Triangle, Seattle creek||Will Morrison|
|04/18/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Turnagain Pass Road Obs||Andy Moderow|
|04/18/21||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge, approximately 300 yards south of the up track||Brent Byrne|
|04/17/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Road obs||Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster|
|04/16/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge||Wendy Wagner Forecaster|
|04/16/21||Turnagain||Avalanche: Turnagain Pass, non-motorized side seen from Seattle Ridge||CNFAIC Staff Forecaster|
|04/16/21||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Lance breeding|
|04/15/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster|
|04/13/21||Turnagain||Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs||A Schauer Forecaster|
|04/12/21||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||Johnston-Bloom / Latosuo Forecaster|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.