Sun, January 12, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, January 12th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

It has been a week since significant precipitation or loading has occurred in the area. All of our information over the past seven days has come from tests in snow pits in the mid and lower elevations. The general trend in our tests has shown us that it is slowly becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche. The one variable that has remained the same is the potential for avalanches to propagate across entire slopes. This fact alone has kept us tip toeing around the mountains lately. Travel into the more suspect areas (e.g. upper elevation starting zones and steep terrain) has not happened. This makes it more difficult to truly have a comprehensive understanding of the snowpack.

The foundation of the snowpack is weak. Faceted snow near the ground is prevalent throughout the area. The slab that has formed over the past month is between 1 and 3 feet deep, depending on elevation (deeper in the higher elevations). This slab is strong enough in many areas to support the weight of a person or snowmachine. The areas where that is not the case are:

Steep rollovers & convexities.
Steep open slopes, generally above 35 degrees and certainly above 40 degrees.
Thin spots in the slab. Areas with shallow snow that are connected to areas with deeper snow, commonly found along ridgecrests.

It is worth avoiding these areas for the time being. The weak snow near the ground simply needs more time to adjust to the slab above it.

Weather

Sun, January 12th, 2014

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have received no new snow. Temperatures have averaged 12 degrees F at ridge tops. Wind direction has shifted overnight and is currently blowing out of the East. The 24 hour average wind speed was 5mph with gusts to 23mph.

Today will bring another uneventful day in terms of weather in the mountains. Temps at 1,000′ will reach the mid 20s F. Winds will remain light out of the East. There is a slight chance for snow during the day with little accumulation expected.

The beginning of this coming week looks to bring continued clouds and light precip to the area. The long term outlook is starting to show the potential for more significant precipitation by the middle of the week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Sat, September 23rd, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Placer River	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Scheduled opening on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving per Chugach National Forest plan. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.