|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche activity has been on the steady decline over the past week. The last reported human triggered avalanche in the forecast area occurred on Thursday December 26th. The nature of a persistent weakness in our snowpack is such that instability continues for extended periods. While the likelihood of triggering a slab avalanche gets lower with each passing day, the possibility still remains. The setup still exists for a slab avalanche to occur, especially in steep terrain above treeline. Test results have been confirming this over the past several days. It is getting more difficult to initiate an avalanche, but the possibility for an avalanche to propagate across a slope remains.
With all of this in mind, it will be important to approach steep slopes in the higher elevations with caution. It may be possible to get onto multiple slopes in this category without incident but eventually find a slope that will avalanche. Because of this possibility it is worth continuing to use good travel habits; one at a time on a slope, avoid being above your partner, have an escape route planned and carry & know how to use your safety equipment.
In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have seen temperatures remain mild, with ridgetop stations averaging in the mid 20s F. Winds have been out of the East at 15-20mph with gusts to 43mph. No new precipitation has fallen.
Today expect cloudy skies with an occasional flurry. Ridgetop temperatures will remain mild in the mid to high 20s F and winds will be out of the East at 15 to 20 mph.
The overall weather picture is complex with a series of weak low pressure systems to the South and West. This will produce an unsettled pattern with cloudy skies & only small amounts of precipitation. The next shot of accumulating snow looks to arrive Tues night into Wednesday morning.
|Observation: Seattle Ridge
|John Sykes Forecaster
|Observation: Kickstep NE Bowl
|Observation: TinCan Backdoor/ Center Ridge
|AAS L1 Turnagain
|Avalanche: Lynx Creek
|Observation: Turnagain, Seattle, Mt Ascension
|Silverton Mountain Guides
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Observation: Seward Highway across from Johnson Pass TH
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin