Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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Continued red flags, including whoomphing (collapsing) in the snowpack are keeping the danger rating at MODERATE above treeline. Steeper slopes should be approached with caution, as the slab/weak layer problem is well understood. Despite the duration we’ve had without new snow, lingering instability is keeping us wary of steeper terrain.
Snow is forecasted for this evening, meaning a small increase in the avalanche danger is expected tomorrow.
Check out this Kickstarter project for an all female ski movie. The project will include filming within our own Chugach National Forest, and will have local talent in the cast. It will be used as an educational tool for avalanche awareness trainings with SheJumps. The project is soliciting support and has 20 days to the deadline.
The poor structure of the snowpack is the culprit behind the collapsing that’s keeping us worried. The most reactive layers we’ve been seeing are the facets above the early December “drizzle” crust (see pit profile here). This layer is showing a tendency to propagate in some pit tests, and we believe it is the big player in most of the recent natural and skier triggered avalanches.
Check out Fitz’s video for a discussion of managing the Moderate problem on Thursday.
There remains some evidence of wind slab avalanche activity from the wind storm on Monday. On Thursday we found numerous mid slope crown lines near Crow Pass from avalanches that presumably happened during that wind event. We can expect some areas to be holding stiff wind slab that didn’t slide spontaneously, but may be triggered by a person hitting a trigger point.
Weather has been consistently benign since Monday with cold, clear, and calm conditions. Temperatures are a little warmer at the ridgetops today, so don’t let cold Anchorage temperatures keep you at home today.
Look for increasing clouds today, and snowfall is expected to commence tonight in Eastern Turnagain Arm. Up to 4-8 inches of snow is in the forecast for tonight!
The storm will be short lived as the front sweeps across southcentral Alaska, with snow tapering Saturday morning and ending.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
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02/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | Wagner / Keeler Forecaster |
02/07/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Pete’s North | Megan Guinn |
02/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Rookie Hill | Tony Naciuk |
01/31/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass area | Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster |
01/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Backdoor | AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30 |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Brooke Edwards |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | W Wagner |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | Tony Naciuk |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx Creek | Megan Guinn / W Wagner |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.